Malcolm Blair Robinson

Set in the mid nineteen nineties, this fast moving thriller lifts the curtain on sex, sleaze and corruption in high places as the long reign of the government totters to an end, following the ousting of the iconic Margaret Thatcher. The novel catches the mood of those times with a host of fictional characters who engage in political intrigue, sex, money laundering and murder, pursued by an Irish investigative journalist and his girlfriend, the daughter of a cabinet minister found dead in a hotel room after bondage sex.

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Any fool can see that the climate is changing. You can debate whether this is due to man made factors or whether it is a continuous and natural process. The impact is already to be felt in weather conditions which are more extreme than we have been used to. Rainstorms are heavier, winds stronger, heat waves more searing, droughts longer; the list goes on. In vulnerable parts of the world once in a lifetime weather events are now recurring with increasing frequency, in some cases year on year. Floods, fires, tornadoes, typhoons, snowstorms (or the lack of them) are all part of the consequences which will now have to be addressed, not as an add on to appease, but as a world project in which every country and community will have to engage.

In the UK it is apparent that the template for towns and villages through which rivers pass is no longer viable because the several hundred years through which they have developed enjoyed a more temperate climate than the one into which we are now passing. Rivers will have to be dredged, giant underground storm drains will have to be built, riverside properties demolished to allow a broader river bed, are just a few of a frightening list of mounting imperatives for which the government seems wholly unprepared.The cost will be eye popping. At present it looks as if £2 billion a year is going to be needed for a decade. The Chancellor will have to get to work on his sums.

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Michael (Lord) Howard thinks not. So do many other euro sceptics and even some who are pro EU. This blog disagrees. It is one thing for the Opposition to wander down separate ways; it can afford the luxury of prejudice dressed as conscience or whatever. But not the Government. We all know the Tory party is split on an issue of critical importance to our country and that it cannot speak with one voice on anything connected with Europe and especially not whether we should stay or go. But constitutionally the government is separate from parliament, even if its ministers are drawn from its membership.  And the public have a right to expect the government to lead, not as a fractured entity facing both ways but as a single unit backing the prime minister.

Wilson tried the indulgence of letting his ministers behave like back benchers last time. It wrecked the cohesion of his government which nearly wrecked the country, hastened his own resignation and certainly wrecked the Labour party. So this time round Cameron has one course only. Back me or go. He could be clever and reshuffle his cabinet at the end of the negotiations before he calls the referendum, thus setting the sceptics free, but on his terms.

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Deep coal mining has now ended altogether in the UK not because we have stopped using coal, but because we can import it more cheaply. The steel industry is in crisis because the home industry cannot compete with cheaper imports. Manufacturing is falling as are exports because our goods are too expensive. For all of this there is a common cause. The pound.

The pound is grossly overvalued, killing not just exports but home production as well. The means to reduce its value are out of service; interest rates are already at near zero. Until this fundamental flaw in the economic model is put right there will be no economic recovery of substance based on a foundation stronger than house price inflation and shopping.

The latest figures are not promising. Trade gap is up, growth is down, tax revenue is down and government borrowing is up. Osborne has a lot to think about.

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William Hague was always regarded as a Euro sceptic. But he now warns that, for all its faults, Britain is better off in than out; the same view as this blog. He also warns, as this blog has done for months, that a vote to leave which would be achieved by the weight of English votes, would lead to the end of the United Kingdom. Scotland, which is pro the EU simply would not be willing to be yanked out against its will and a new referendum would take it out of the UK for certain. Wales and Northern Ireland would be left in difficulty. They are both pro EU. The case for a united Ireland would become stronger. Wales would have little option but to grin and bear it, but the nationalist movement would gain ground as time went on. The out campaign waffle about trade deals but nobody offers even a hint of what these would be; either with whom or on what terms. They do not  discuss the impact on the integrity of the UK. They know they cannot because they have no answer. Hague’s intervention will come as a blow to their pride.

Few discuss the effect on the EU itself of a British exit. It is becoming clear that it could be a disaster for the whole project. Europe has four major pillars. Britain, Germany, France and Russia. Foolishly Russia is excluded, so it holds up with three pillars. Take Britain away and you are left with France and Germany. But Germany is by far the stronger economically and would bear the weight and call the shots. The EU would be the new German Empire in all but name. This is just beginning to dawn upon many European capitals. No wonder the Polish President is anxious.

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So soon after his bravura performance in his Autumn Statement during which his party, lined up on the benches behind him, became hysterical with delight as he found big increases in tax revenue, about which nothing had been know before, the first test has been a spectacular disaster. Government Borrowing in November is up on last year, reaching above a hefty £14 billion in the month. So another forecast from our George is wrong. Dear me! Who would have guessed it? Practically everyone.