The present defence and political posture of the West over IS is deeply flawed and going nowhere. The following, or something like it, offers a way forward. It stands most of what is happening on its head. It will take real political courage to put it into effect, not the faux stuff we see flying around at the moment in and on the media and in parliament.
1 IS cannot be defeated by military means applied in its strongholds in Syria and Iraq. It is not actually a direct threat to the West and Russia there. The main threat comes from the embedded adherents already in situ all over the world who can be galvanised into horrific terrorist acts by exhortations, encouragement, in revenge or on a whim. IS itself is the product of war and like a partisan militia living in the forest, thrives upon it. It has no infrastructure to speak of, apart from some oil wells which are easy targets to destroy, but its command centres and headquarters are makeshift and can be remade almost anywhere. Military activity should at this stage concentrate only on containing it.
2 There are, as everybody agrees, two prongs to any solution. One is military the other political. At present only military activity is organised. The political settlement is not even agreed in outline. This is back to front. The political outcome should be agreed by all parties and enforced, if necessary, by military action. Then everybody knows what they are fighting for.
3 It is impossible to resolve the IS crisis without working with Russia as an integrated ally of the US led international coalition. To achieve this the censorious attitude to Putin and his government has to stop. Childish needling, like having Macedonia (!) join NATO is just stupid.
4 The preservation of a viable Syrian state is critical. If it collapses IS will occupy Damascus within days. Russia has to assist Assad’s forces to drive back its enemies and create a ceasefire which will allow a political solution in Syria and an end to the civil war. The West has to accept Assad (who has never threatened the West) is as much a fact as Stalin was in WWII. We did not make Stalin’s removal a condition of working with the Soviets to defeat Hitler. Had we done so we would have lost the war.
3 In war you cannot pick and choose enemies like an a la carte supper. Assad is against IS. Russia is against IS. Iran is against IS. The West is against IS. But the rag bag conglomeration of militias the West loves to call the moderate (really?) opposition are actually ambivalent about IS, are disunited among themselves, many with very doubtful roots not far from IS and Al Qaeda. They have to be given a choice; either withdraw from the fight against Assad and turn your fire on IS, in return for a seat and the political settlement negotiations. Or be treated as an enemy. There is no other way to fight a war. The Russians know that, but the West has a problem getting its collective head around it. To do so is one of the tags without which the war will not be won. In WWII we did not try and distinguish between good and bad Nazis. We did not even care if they were Nazis. We just killed all Germans.
4 The time to get tough with the backers and covert supporters of IS is at hand. The Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia, must be told to stop arming and funding IS or face an oil embargo and a freezing of all their financial assets in the West. Turkey, which seems to be playing several games at once must be told it either comes on board 100% or it will be suspended from NATO.
5 It then becomes possible to deal with the big picture which has two central components. The first is the restoration of peace through a viable political settlement in Syria and the second is to agree the boundaries of both a Sunni and a Kurdish homeland, where each can live free untroubled lives according to their traditions and beliefs. This will mean a final kiss goodbye to everything connected to Sykes Picot and a major redraft of the borders and territory of Iraq, Syria and possibly at the margin Turkey. That plan is the priority and has to be worked on 24/7. When it is available in outline a ceasefire everywhere should follow. Ground forces will be needed to hold the new lines initially and stamp out resistance from those so addicted to fighting and fiefdom (like in Libya) that they cannot stop. And those forces must come from the Arab states. Saudi Arabia is the third largest defence spender in the world after America and China, so it must be asked to make the biggest contribution. UN Command would be ideal. Western boots on the ground would cause the whole thing to collapse, so don’t even think about it.
6 As part of this enduring settlement there has to be aid on a scale not seen since the Marshall Plan post WWII, involving billions upon billions to rebuild Syria, Iraq and the two new Kurdish and Sunni states in very short order, so that lights stay on, hospitals function, education gears up, homes are rebuilt, transport infrastructure is restored; the list is terrifying but it will have to be done and everybody in the Gulf States and the West is going to have to go without something to pay for it.
7 All refugees from the various war zones who have fled to Europe should be encouraged to return and help rebuild their countries and offered a generous bounty per family for doing so to help them reboot their lives in the lands of their forbears. Especially those with skills and professional qualifications, whose support will be critical.
8 IS will not be destroyed but it will cease to have any rational following, once the Sunnis are restored to a homeland. There will be some mopping up, but the rejuvenation of the Middle East will enable all Muslims to focus on the enlightened and civilising traditions of their faith and its immense and positive contribution to the story of mankind. Against that, IS, with its blood thirsty regression into cruelty and abuse of human dignity will have nothing worth having to offer. That is how all insurgencies end.
9 Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and the so styled War on Terror have been the biggest collective failure of policy and strategy for a very long time. The triumph has been the intelligence services who have blocked most of the attempted consequences. We cannot rely on their ability to do that forever and we now must get a grip and get to the core of all this smouldering hatred and violence. To do that we have to give justice to a good many people whose worlds we have wrecked.
