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Archive for December 18th, 2015
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Friday, December 18th, 2015
GB and the Euro.
Friday, December 18th, 2015It is very unfashionable in Britain to say we should have joined the Euro at the beginning. Indeed the kindest would fail to take the observation seriously and the nasties would tell one to seek some help. So it is with some enthusiasm that this blog, which likes be be out on a limb, will now make the point.
Had GB joined with the project the Euro would have been properly structured and properly managed from the very beginning, not from Frankfurt but from London. It would have a governance system that worked and a much more robust approach to dealing with errant members, with a much more realistic one for those about to go over a cliff. Most important of all the UK would have enjoyed a structural devaluation of sterling’s competitive position on the lines of Germany, which would have powered up our manufacturing base and produced a much more industrialised economy than our current model driven by shopping and house price inflation. The tax base would have been larger and with it the revenue, so that the cost of delivering good quality public services would have been more in balance with income.
There are a multitude of other advantages but in the current context it is necessary to mention only one. The government constantly asserts that EU migrants flood in (perhaps many more than official figures show according to leaks today) because of benefit generosity. Yet statistics show we make more in revenue than we lose in payments so that is an emotional rather than a fiscal argument. The real reason migrants come is to profit. The pound is valued higher than the Euro, although each currency unit buys roughly the same in its own zone. So if you are, say, Polish and you come here to work whilst leaving your family at home, and you earn £100 and send it home to Poland, your dependants get E137. See?
Add to that the fact that GB has a trading deficit with Euroland of £50 billion annually and it does not look a opting out was quite as clever as we thought.
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Friday, December 18th, 2015Cameron Negotiates: For What?
Friday, December 18th, 2015There is before the United Kingdom a self inflicted problem, which is bedevilling any constructive and useful influence Britain has in Europe. It echoes the tense zone of a couple drifting apart and willing to do so, yet trying to find an excuse to stay together.
The issue now facing this country is not whether Cameron can negotiate some fig leaf deal sufficient to hide the rampant right wing of his party, so that he is able to recommend that the UK stays in. It is whether fundamentally the UK wishes to remain part of Europe. Messing around with the detail makes no real difference. The concessions demanded, if granted, are actually neither here nor there. You are either for it, or agin it. This blog is for it, always has been and always will be. This is because I see it not through the prism of benefit tourism, but through the tears of close on 100 million dead from two great wars.
The fact that everybody is peacefully now arguing about benefits entitlement is one of the greatest successes of history and this blog can see no valid reason to walk away. All those legions of mostly young men and all those cowering civilians either died for nothing or they died so that we might get to where we are today. These silly conflated issues which could so easily be resolved, and which if conceded will make only a marginal difference anyway, are just not reason enough to let their memories down. We owe them more than a poppy and a silence.