Archive for November 26th, 2015

Osborne: Is this Real?

Thursday, November 26th, 2015

Not really. Too much of the package is based upon forecasts which statistically have only a 55% chance of being right. Would you fly in an aircraft with only a 55% chance of getting there? No. So Osborne, who has missed almost every target in every forecast he has ever set, giving another bravura performance in the Commons sounding more like a prime minister (in waiting) than the Chancellor that he is, wound his backbenchers up to shrieks of delirium with an old fashioned dose of robbing Peter to pay Paul. In their ecstasy the benches behind him could see only Paul and it was wonderful.

Peter will come out of the shadows to haunt them later.

Whas Turkey Right?

Thursday, November 26th, 2015

Russia certainly tests everybody’s patience with its constant probing of other people’s air space; we in these islands are familiar with their bombers passing close by. So it may not have come as a big surprise that the Turks acted as they did. However when you look at the incident the Turkish position is well nigh impossible to sustain. This is why Western politicians and NATO have politely supported in public Turkey’s right to protect its airspace, while giving Ankara a roasting behind the scenes.

The Russian plane in no way threatened Turkey. It was engaged in combat against Syrian rebels whom Turkey supports but Russia does not in the muddle of the uncoordinated civil war in Syria mixed into the war on Islamic state. If it ever was in Turkish airspace it was passing across a narrow peninsular which it entered and left so fast that only fractions of minutes were involved. Because it was passing across it was leaving even as it was entering. The best word to describe the Turkish action is reckless. It has done itself much damage.

This is because its overall aim is to join the EU. Many do not want it as they regard Turkey as both troubled and a troublemaker and that view will be reinforced. The chances of Turkey getting into Europe now any time soon are zero. It will continue to try and invoke various articles of its NATO membership as it goes from one scrape to the next, but the best it can hope for from the alliance is tea and sympathy. Beautifully served of course.