This Blog has many times complained of the incompetence of western foreign policy in almost every sphere, but especially in the Middle East and in relations with Russia. It is the inability to think strategically, the refusal to depart from the old tribal model of goodies and baddies post cold war, and the pointless campaign to isolate Russia, which hurts the west more than Putin. The shambles of failed states, Iraq and Libya, now being joined by Afghanistan where everything is going wrong, should put down the kind of marker that would trigger a rethink. But no.
So we get to Syria. A senior UK politician today described western policy here as childish and based on fantasy. The enemy has always been the militant forms of Islam trying to turn the clock back to the middle ages, not Assad, although there is much about him and his regime to deplore. The moderate opposition western politicians promote does not exist. The free Syrian Army, which is very weak, were it to triumph, would almost certainly inaugurate a second Libya. IS and its allies, including Al Qaeda affiliates, are heading to take over all of Syria, as the west’s bombing campaigns does no more than hinder.
Russia then steps forward and asks to join the coalition to defeat IS et al. The west vacillates and argues because Russia sees Assad in the short term as part of the solution not the problem. But the west takes a posture verging on the imbecile. No he has to go. It is like insisting on Stalin going as part of the deal to defeat the Nazis. So Russia and Iran decide, in effect, to go it alone. For this the west can only blame itself. The smart move now would be to walk away and let the Russians and the Iranians, with what is left of Assad, to get on with it. They could not do worse. But the chances are they would do a whole lot better. If they defeat or hobble IS that is good for the west.
The snag is it would make western politicians look silly and their military inept. Yes well…