Archive for January 8th, 2015

Cameron And Merkel: Did She Yield?

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

No. She was polite and engaging. She acknowledged there were problems. She wanted Britain to stay. But on the free movement of people she would give no quarter. Neither did she see the prospect of treaty change. She declared Britain and Germany shared the same values and with a smile, a kiss and a wave she left. Cameron was jovial. And brave. But he got nothing he did not already have.

Unfortunately the avuncular and genial Cameron, good at articulating the public mood, is badly advised on foreign policy and flat footed when undertaking it. He makes a mistake forcefully declaring Britain’s demands. Instead he should concentrate on Euroland’s needs. Now deflated and with a Greek crisis once again simmering and the ECB poised to print money, it is becoming as plain as a pikestaff that greater federalism in the Eurozone is an ever more urgent priority. At the heart of the issue is the fact that the Eurozone has a Central Bank but no Treasury. For that it needs a government and sooner or later it either has to get one or fold up. The only alternative is to accept that Germany is both the Treasury and the Government. In other words Germany is not part of Euroland, but Euroland is part of Germany.

This is where the opportunity lies for Britain to cut a deal which all but the nutters will vote for in a referendum. As the Eurozone becomes Federalized, led by Germany, those outside the Euro become attached but not linked, led by Britain. A two speed Europe yes. But better than a stopped dead Europe, which is what there is now.

And everyone has to stop being silly about Russia.

Good Books: Paperback or Kindle

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

GOOD READS FOR 2015

 From  TOR  RAVEN

Download all five fast reading thrillers now! Or buy paperbacks. Orders over £10 postage free.

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Satan's Disciple: Gothic Crime SeriesPower Corruption and LiesThe Hastings OptionWhilloe's First Case Hess Enigma: A Novel

 

From MALCOLM  BLAIR-ROBINSON

These two mega thrillers are a must for those who love historical drama and political intrigue.

Hitler's First Lady: Compact EditionPurple Killing

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Printing Euros

Thursday, January 8th, 2015

Commentators think it likely that the ECB will finally get the green light from Germany to print money to boost the Euroland economy, now in deflation. This is not a given. Germany is culturally averse to the notion, especially when several economies within the Eurozone are not fully reformed. But it may happen.

If it does the outcome will depend upon the format used. If it follows the US/UK model of buying bonds from banks and financial institutions with new electronic money, the effect will be to grow the financial sector. This will develop the side effect, now beginning to unsettle both The UK and the US, where the people in the financial sector and the rich do much better than those in the more menial jobs and small businesses where the masses are employed. This is because this cash injection leads to asset inflation and makes lending more profitable and less risky than investing. That in turn will cause the gap between rich and poor to grow even bigger. And in Euroland, where the gap is already wide, this will lead to social unrest and political extremism. That extremism will come from the far right as well as the far left.

Frau Merkel will be thinking about these things as you read this.