The party conference season is over. There have been two seismic political shocks in bye-elections. The general election is seven months away. Nobody is able to predict the outcome. All of this is an unusual configuration of confusion as the first fixed term parliament lurches forward to its close. It is a moment to assess each of the political parties in turn.
THE TORIES
On the face of it it should be good news. Cameron won the conference line up hands down. The economy is growing. The party has pulled into a small lead in some polls. There are still problems to resolve but having succeeded thus far it must make sense to be allowed to finish the job, and to finish it with a majority avoiding the need to share with the Lib Dems.
If only that is where it stopped. But there is more. The economy may have peaked and actually be slowing by next May. The recovery has been much better for the rich than for the poor. The record numbers in work are earning less and their real pay value is falling year on year. Cuts are eating into efficiency and availability of public services, yet the deficit remains and so more cuts are promised. There has been a complete failure to solve key problems of immigration and the lack of and cost of housing. Foreign policy has all but unraveled, with failure in the Middle East and in handling Russia. The sanctions imposed on Putin and the resultant ban by Russia of agricultural imports is tipping Europe back towards recession. Storm clouds are building. The election climate was much better at the end of the fourth year than it will be at the end of the fifth.
Then there is UKIP.
LABOUR
Labour made a rapid recovery from a big bad defeat and has generally been a united and strong opposition riding high in the polls for most of this parliament. Its future ambitions are not to be returned to carry on the good work of opposition, but instead to get a mandate to govern. And this is where difficulties crop up. When looked at as potential prime minister and chancellor, the geeky Milliband and the derided Balls do not inspire confidence with their own Labour voters, let alone those who have to be won back in order to win power again.
These personality issues are underscored by the fact that there is no clear narrative of hope nor a plan for remedy for all that is so obviously awry. The economy, the NHS, public services, jobs, housing, the cost of living and immigration are all at the forefront of voters’ minds in varying degrees. So is the issue of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. Yet nowhere is there to be found from Labour a Big Message or a Big Idea or a Big Plan to deal with it all. There are a string of tinkerings and tweaks but nothing new or different. So if it is all going to be much the same under the two Eds, are they up to it? If the polls are to be believed the answer could be NO.
Then there is UKIP.
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
Here things do not look good. There is no doubt that this party has performed well in coalition and its ministers have done their best and done it well. They have certainly acted as a restraint to the introduction of the raw meat of the Tory Right and have made Cameron’s government nearer the one nation Tory style of the nineteen fifties. They have managed to get quite a few of their populist policies like a much higher income tax allowance, free school meals and the pupil premium onto the statute books. But there was one promise they made, which was so special that they called it a pledge and they all signed it. This they broke. It was tuition fees. No young person will vote for them for a generation and without those votes they are electoral toast.
Yet they have one saving grace which means the party will not face oblivion, but will be reduced to a number of MPs nearer the teens than the eighty odd at their peak. The reason for this is that although the Lib Dems are a truly national party, people do not generally vote for them over national issues. Instead their support is grounded on local issues and local activists. Thus they are much more swing proof than the other main parties and polls do not reflect this local strength. This will save them. They will lose a lot of seats and loads of deposits but here and there they will hang on. As they always have.
UKIP will make no difference.
UKIP
Over twenty years of gestation this party has passed though a period of the fruitcake image and the far right extremists and become something more deadly than any political force since WWII. It now offers an exciting blend of nationalism, anti-EU, immigration, anti-establishment, anti Westminster elite, bankers, profiteers et al which inspires and thrills all those with a grumble about anything, right to left, rich and poor, north and south. There is a paucity of detail but a richness of vision. Nigel Farage and Douglas Carswell are now the rain makers of British politics. The election will be fought to their agenda and on their terms. Anything can happen.
Like it or not UKIP will decide the outcome in 2015. They aim to hold the balance of power. The effort may sink them. Or they may become the power itself.