After the conclusion of the two big conferences Labour remains ahead in the polls, but only just and its lead is within the margin of error. If the issue were decided on conference quality, the Tories would win, not least because of their steadiness under fire from scandal and defections. If the issue were decided on the credibility, performance and popularity of the leaders, both within their parties and outside, it would be game set and match to Cameron. If it were decided on the credibility of which party has the better candidate for chancellor, there would be no contest. Should each team be lined up, it would stand out that Labour has more effective women, but the Tories have Teresa May. So why is Labour anywhere near the lead in any poll?
Is it all down to UKIP? Not at all, because UKIP is a manifestation of dissatisfaction with Tories about their party, which is now broadening its base to include Labour voters who feel the same about theirs. UKIP may also be reaching those who do not normally vote. The problem for the Tory party is best set down under three headings.
The first is that their obsession with home ownership inaugurated by Thatcher, has created a distorted economy where house price inflation and the borrowing both by individuals and the government to keep up with it, not only created the crash, but has been used again by the Tories to build the recovery which thus cannot last. The shape of the economy is such that for the first time for centuries money is sucked from the poorest to give to the richest.
The second is that the party is split over Europe. We do not need to explore this; it is a fact well known. It is also a fact, as well known, that split parties rarely win.
Third is the Tory propensity to bribe electors with rash promises over tax which are difficult to fulfill. Every economic commentator is today asking questions about how it is possible to cut the deficit and taxes at the same time. The answer is you cannot without cutting expenditure as well. To meet the Tory promise of eliminating the deficit plus a £12.500 threshold and £50.000 before you get to pay higher rate tax, will require a £ 30 billion plus cut in government expenditure per annum. So far less than a third of that has been discussed so what are they hiding?
Out on the streets there is distrust of politicians to the point where few take any notice of what they promise anyway. But it is on the streets that reality kicks in. And reality says that things are tough for the majority and likely to get tougher. When it comes to instinct the feeling out there is that Labour is on the side of people who are finding it tough, who are working very hard, yet struggling to get by. There are an awful lot of them. They pay no attention to big speeches or understand the complexity of the issues. They only know that under Cameron’s government the rich have got richer and the poor have got poorer. They really do not care if Ed Milliband is a touch forgetful or that Ed Balls is a bit of a laughing stock, because inspite of these failings, they are still on their side.
That is why Labour is still just ahead and why the outcome for the Tories is by no means assured.