Archive for November, 2014

Cameron And Europe

Saturday, November 29th, 2014

An increasingly desperate Cameron is thrashing about trying to appease angry voters, angry Tory party members and an irritated Europe. His latest speech offers proposals which, if agreed by the EU and that is a big if, would deal with the emotional objection to migrants claiming benefits as soon a they get here and sending such things as child benefit to families who do not live here. This is a move to appease, but it is unlikely to significantly reduce numbers. Britain is seen as a land of opportunity for those willing to work for low wage jobs, which Brits leave vacant. So people will still come even if they do not get benefits. It is also true that EU migrants pay more in taxes than they take in benefits, so the country actually makes a profit.

The problems is as much one of perception in the country at large but in some areas one of real social stress and difficulty, with strains on education, welfare, health and housing and this has to be addressed. In order to appease UKIP all sorts of proposals will fly, yet whatever the impact on Europe, there will be none on UKIP and its allies in the Tory Right. They just want out and say talking is a waste of time.

Europe is certainly about trade, but above all it is about peace, stability, freedom and unity. Nations which have over centuries spilled so much blood killing each other that the volume is beyond measure, are now at peace and working together. Yes there are problems between the rich north and poor south and yes the euro has to be organised through shared sovereignty and strong governance. But these problems are as nothing to what has gone before. Europe united into the EU is one of the greatest political achievements in all of human history. Britain is lucky to be a member and those of us alive today are lucky that this is our time. Those of us with children and grandchildren can look forward with more hope than any previous generation that death upon a battlefield is not their destiny.

And who among our nervous leaders is making this case today? Two elderly grandees, Ken Clarke and Michael (Lord) Heseltine. No others have the guts. That is why UKIP is making the political weather and setting Cameron’s agenda.

Andrew Mitchell

Friday, November 28th, 2014

Only nasty people want to see a person’s career shredded and whatever your politics, Andrew Mitchell cuts a rather sorry figure today. His reputation is tarnished beyond political repair and the finding by the judge that he probably used the ‘p’ word is damning.

That an altercation about which gate to use lasting seconds can have such a string of consequences is astonishing. The police did not handle the aftermath well at any level and one even ended up in prison. Mitchell seemed to be emerging quite well, then he decided on this calamitous libel action. What will really rile people who find it hard to make ends meet, is the fact that he can afford to blow up to £3 million on lawyers over his loss off temper. It is very bad politics for the Tories which will rub off on all the others except UKIP.

Good Book Choice

Friday, November 28th, 2014

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Good Books: Good Value

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

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Grand Jury Surprise

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

It is necessary to delve deep into American history to discover the complex causes of the extraordinary stand off between black and white in Ferguson, Missouri. Americans are shocked but have some understanding of what is going on. The rest of the world is astonished and cannot see how a white policeman can shoot dead an unarmed black teenager, using eight rounds, four while the youth was either dying or dead on the ground, and be found by something called a grand jury meeting behind closed doors as innocent of any wrongdoing. Whatever this is supposed to be, it cannot come under the heading of what most of the free world calls justice. It echoes the South Africa of apartheid.

All of this would be America’s problem and its problem alone, were it not for the fact that America is a country which feels good about itself, so good in fact that it seeks to exert moral influence and leadership over the rest of the world, most of which it judges not up to its standard of freedom, democracy and justice. American politicians of all parties and ethnicities need to take a long hard look at the way some of their public institutions and those who work for them are functioning. Ferguson is not a good publicity platform from which to launch the battle for hearts and minds against  Islamic State.

Four Good Reads

Monday, November 24th, 2014

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Chuck Hagel Goes : Where goes US Strategy?

Monday, November 24th, 2014

Depending on who you read the US Defense Secretary either decided to retire early or was fired. He never seemed to have quite the grip of some of his predecessors, but US strategy has been less clear cut. The aftermath of Iraq and Afghanistan coupled with the total failure of the expected outcome in Libya and the fragmented nature of the western backed opposition to Assad which allowed the rise of ISIS, all roll up into a muddled package of uncertainty and failure. On the positive side, although extended and long winded, the talks with Iran are a major achievement.

The reason that the Pentagon is unhappy is that US public opinion will not back any more wars which involve sacrificing its young men in countries riven by internal quarrels. So whatever the preference for ground forces in the Middle East, it is not going to happen. It will be interesting to see whether the appointment of former Obama challenger and super hawk, the Arizona Senator John McCain, to chair the powerful Senate Armed Services committee will make American public opinion more pro boots or more anti.

Buy Good Books

Sunday, November 23rd, 2014

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Time For Diplomacy

Sunday, November 23rd, 2014

Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, has complained that the objective of the Western sanctions is to effect regime change in Russia. This blog does not believe that this is the intention of most of the supporters of sanctions, but it does agree that this is what a few hotheads would like. The same ones who went for regime change in Iraq, Libya and Syria and who are blind to the total chaos which has resulted and unwilling to admit that the ultimate outcome, the Islamic State, is anything to do with them.

Anyone looking for regime change in Moscow is a fool, unless a Russian with a vote, since Russia is now a democracy and its people elect the government of their choice. If they wish to change at the next election they will do so. But those outside Russia, the most strident of whom declare themselves democrats, should respect the fact that whether they love them or hate them the combination of Putin, Medvedev and Lavrov has rescued Russia from chaos and up to the Ukraine crisis, had set it on a progressive path.

The Ukraine crisis is as much the fault of the West as it is the East and in both cases was ignited and subsequently fanned by fear and misunderstanding. East feared the expansion of the West to the Russian border and the West saw in its mind’s eye tens of thousands of Russian tanks trundling west across Europe. Both visions were irrational and unsupported by hard evidence, yet made credible by actions, words and bluster. Meanwhile thousands have died and no resolution to what is a fairly straightforward problem is in sight.

The time is up to sort this out and normalize relations with Russia. Russia needs it but so does  Europe. Neither economy is robust enough to sustain this spat. Moreover the people suffering and dying because of it deserve better. Meanwhile there is a need to reach agreement with Iran. This will not happen without Russia’s cooperation and the containment of ISIS will not happen without Russia, Iran and the West working together. It is all a no brainer. Which makes it all the more disappointing.

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Sunday, November 23rd, 2014

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…..No such doubts assailed the mind of the dark stranger walking silently at speed towards the cabin. He had little compunction about his mission. He knew exactly how to do it and he was well equipped and prepared. He knew that just before dawn was the moment to catch the night watch at its least alert, as it would see the streaks of light piercing the dark of the sky as the signal that soon the danger would pass. The moon was sinking low, its silver glow now a dull and murky grey. The trees gave cover and reduced the light still further. As he drew near, he slipped his hand in a pocket and pressed the switch on a small instrument which would pass as a pager. This confirmed itself active with a soft bleep. It had jammed all the electronic sensors ringing the property. He already knew the frequency, which he had pre-loaded. He did not have to stop to allow the instrument to search…….