Even the political enemies of the Tory party, and this blog is no friend (but nor is it to any of the political parties), the way the conference hit by scandal and defection has brushed it off and turned the media focus back to what matters for it is remarkable. It is also good for Cameron, whose victory by a margin in Scotland and caution over the political minefield of involvement in IS air strikes has made him look like a prime minister in situ. This is in sharp contrast to Ed Milliband, the forgetful prime minister in waiting who looks as if he may have to wait until he is past his sell by date. But this is politics and nothing is predictable until it has happened.
What is perhaps predicable is this. UKIP will make the weather for 2015 when it comes to the actual vote. This will embolden Nigel Farage to suppose that the road out of the EU is open. Well it won’t be. Countless people fed up with the oily class of PR trained political professionals now dominating Westminster will vote UKIP without the slightest intention of voting to come out of Europe. Just as they swarmed in Scotland to Salmond to govern them, without intending to follow him out of the UK. There was a sizeable minority in Scotland who wanted out, but there was a significant majority who preferred the status quo, with all its faults.
When it comes to the EU referendum the same will happen in England. Wales and Scotland will definitely vote to say in as will Northern ireland because all gain far to much to walk away. They also have a big brother watching over them in Brussels in the benevolent sense; if they left they would be dominated by an increasingly right wing England, which none of them wants. So it will be down to the voters in England to decide the issue. While it is certain that English nationalism is on the rise, there is and will remain a silent majority who prefer the status quo of being part of the EU. History, especially one so steeped in blood to get to the point of European unity, cannot be turned back like a clock. It is like life, which teaches lessons, but only goes forward.
Of course there is Boris. But Boris is only good when he is winning. Losing, he begins to look like what many believe he is, a clown. That is the comforting thought that helps Cameron to get a good night’s sleep. He tries to forget that Boris does not do losing.
