The NATO summit in Wales, together with President Obama’s upcoming address to the nation, mark the end of one era and the start of another. After the end of the Cold War we had a spell of America the only superpower. This period could have been used to build unshakeable bridges between East and West and draw Russia into its proper place in Europe, but it was not done. Then came post 9/11, which was a mixture of revenge, a mistaken belief that democracy was a cure for everything, and the imposition of it by force. This was a period of almost complete diplomatic failure, but it was a period where politics, albeit muddled and mistaken, drove military necessity.
The failure by the West to correctly assess the Russian fears which drive its intentions, has now led to breakdown. To build sound diplomacy you first have to see problems through the prism of the other side’s vision. If you do not do that you will do yourself more harm than good. The West is now harming itself by its sanctions on Russia in ways which it cannot afford. Germany France and Italy, whose economies are the economic heart of Euroland are now flatlining or in recession. It remains as important for the West to find a way of settling differences with Russia as it is for Russia herself. Indeed Russia could turn east and build an economic and military alliance with China, if issues are not resolved.It is not yet too late but it soon will be.
Meanwhile the period where politics drove military necessity is over. We are now into the old familiar format where military needs and fears drive politics. NATO has drawn red lines and is upping its preparedness. Russia is doing something similar. NATO is overwhelmingly the more powerful, but, and Putin hinted at this just the other day, Russia is a nuclear mega power and can destroy both the United States and the whole of Europe in the course of a single morning. But it would not itself see the end of that very day either. We know the drill. There will be a period of dusting down systems and targeting programmes. This is very disappointing.
The much criticised Obama saw this coming. Hence his reluctance to commit himself. By boosting the confidence of eastern NATO members with assurances of support if attacked and by calibrating the response to the blood thirsty ISIL to be conditional upon the regional players running the ground action, is way of creating an atmosphere of greater diplomatic calm because everybody knows what the intentions are, especially the Russians. Obama believes there is then a prospect of a deal with Putin which will not put the clock back to where it was, but will open a future of cooperation based on mutual self interest , if not on friendship.
Because in the end defeating ISIL will require a combination of some kind of federated Iraq and a shrunken Syria, which gives the moderate Sunnis, by far the majority, an autonomous region, or state within a group or confederation. To achieve that will require not only the support of the pro western gulf states, some of whom face both ways, but also Iran and above all Russia. Once again Obama knows this but he is just about the only American politician who does.