David Cameron is the only credible Prime Minister at Westminster and looks and sounds the part on the media and across the world stage. He does, however, appear to be in some trouble with his MP’s who are now panicked at the prospect of Scotland leaving the Union. Even if the Scots do vote NO, there is still Clacton looming. Tory grandees are saying that the prime minister who broke up the Union, if this happens, will be gone by Christmas. Well, we shall see. Nothing ever goes according to plan these days in politics; often because the plans are badly laid.
Alex Salmond wanted a two question referendum with devo max as an option. There seems little doubt that this would have been the overwhelming choice and Scotland would have remained in the Union for certain. But Cameron refused, demanding one in or out question, clear and final. He then agreed to the Salmond plan giving the Yes option to the separatists. He could have had the question framed as ‘Do you want Scotland to stay in the United Kingdom?’ Yes for Union, No for separation. Yes is positive. No is negative.
So some angry MPs will feel, if Scotland walks out on Thursday next, that it is all Cameron’s fault and they may be right. As this blog has said before, Salmond’s independence model with the monarchy and the pound retained, in a currency union rather than a political union, is not true independence but a kind of devo max. The No campaign are now, many say in panic, offering devo-max as well. So both Yes and No are heading for the same place in practice, but with a slightly different format. The canny Salmond wins either way.
Cameron has, on the other hand shown a dangerous lack of judgement. Coming on top of Coulson, Libya, the defeat in the intended bombing of Syria and the simplistic approach to the Ukraine crisis, this leaves him damaged. He is still afloat but has taken on a good deal of water. One more hit, Clacton for instance, and he could sink.