Archive for September, 2014

Tony Blair and IS: Wiser Now?

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

In a recent interview for the BBC Tony Blair had a much more measured contribution, while observing that at some point somebody’s boots may be needed on the ground to defeat IS. He made the point that it would be much better if it were not Western boots but he thought nothing should be ruled out.

The issue with IS is this. It must be contained militarily because of the suffering caused by its advance to those who do not embrace its cause. Terrible brutalities to the innocent are its hallmark. What it is trying to provoke is Western military intervention with ground troops because that will, it knows, embroil the West in another unwinnable war and rally many who ordinarily oppose it, to its colours. At all costs the West must restrict any intervention to air power used with precision, and humanitarian aid. It cannot, as politicians claim, be beaten, because above all it is not an entity but an idea. It is a bad idea based upon an unrecognisable interpretation of Islam, but even if you took back every square yard of its territory and killed every one of its fighters it would re-emerge in some other format, first as an insurgency, then as a force.

The only way to deal with this is to kill the idea and the only people who can do that are the  Sunnis themselves. To give them space to do this will require the help of both Kurds and  the Shias who feel equally threatened. These must provide the ground forces, but it is the moderate Sunnis who must win back the hearts, minds and faith of their own people who form the backbone of this bloodthirsty conglomeration. The West can supply weapons, intelligence and some special force mentoring as well as air power, but no more. To ensure the plan succeeds requires the cooperation of  the coalition which John Kerry has put together, but with this proviso. The vital players in this drama are Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey and Assad’s Syria. They must be on board or the enterprise will fail. This will require the crossing of diplomatic barriers and a settling or deferring of differences, but without this, IS will carry on, however big the coalition of the others who are on America’s (and Britain’s) list of good guys.

 

Books At Bedtime!

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

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Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

Labour In Trouble: Serious Trouble.

Monday, September 22nd, 2014

Whereas a year ago an average of opinion polls gave Labour a projected majority in 2015 of about eighty, its lead has now dropped to a tiny projected sixteen. This is the wrong direction of travel for Milliband and Balls. Moreover English voters are determined that the fifty nine MPs in the Commons elected from Scottish constituencies should, in the light of the greater devolution promised to Scotland by all parties to gain  a win for NO, should end. Forty-one of them are Labour. Without their votes Labour will not have a majority in England. The Tories know this. The Tories also know that the fear which stalks them in every waking hour, UKIP, and which beat them in the European elections, has seized the moment and its leader, Nigel Farage, has overnight become an English Nationalist. This is an entirely new kind of politics and English nationalism, for long unspoken, is now out in the open.

These new politics are complicated by the fact that the Thatcher era was popular in England (and very popular in the U.S.), but less so elsewhere. Eventually the Tories have become the party of England. Their sister party in Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionists have no seats at Westminster, Welsh Tories have eight and Scottish Tories have one. English Tories have two hundred and five. In other words the Tories lose only one vote in Scotland if Scottish MPs are banned from voting on English matters but Labour loses forty-one. That means no Labour majority in England for a Labour Government. But if Labour comes out against the English votes for English matters against the tide of opinion, it stands to lose many of its existing English seats and Milliband can kiss goodbye to any thought of winning the next general election.

Labour now is in a mess just when it should be strong. It messed up its campaign in the Scottish referendum and had to be rescued by a re-born Gordon Brown promising more devolution. It has made a mess of its economic policy so that few understand it and nobody trusts it. It lacks a big narrative and a message of hope. It is prone to policy initiatives which nobody can remember the day after. This is its last Conference before 2015. There are only two outcomes possible. The eve of victory or the eve of defeat. To avoid the latter Ed Milliband now has to step up to the plate. For defeat in 2015 would most certainly be the end of Ed. This could be, even may be, his last conference as Leader.

The question of devolution of the the most centralised power in the West is one which cannot be solved just with a ban on Scottish MPs voting on English matters, but the British way is to effect constitutional change in bite size pieces. Eventually there must be a wider constitutional settlement, greater devolution within England itself and even a written constitution drawing together all the various measures in a coherent and accessible form. But there has to be that first bite and the tide of opinion is that the time for that is now. Failure to grasp this will drive frustrated voters to UKIP. Farage will become England’s Salmond.

Weekend Reading

Saturday, September 20th, 2014

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Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

Alex Salmond: A Remarkable Politician

Saturday, September 20th, 2014

It matters not what your politics are. Alex Salmond is the most astute politician in the British Isles and his influence goes way beyond Scotland’s borders and his legacy will last well beyond his retirement. This blog feels he still has much to offer and expects to see him back.

There is no doubt that the YES campaign believed not only that it could win but that it was winning. It came very close. If ten per cent of NO votes had switched to YES, Salmond would have been home and dry. Those votes would have been his if the Nationalist party had taken more trouble to prepare a coherent plan for a proper currency and undertaken the groundwork to set up something which would have been credible to business and the markets and above all their voters. The muddle on offer, which would have been voted down in the House of Commons even if the veto was lifted by the Cabinet and Opposition, meant a vote for Salmond was a leap into the unknown. Warnings poured in from business, economists, bankers et al and voters took fright.

Yet what was achieved is actually bigger than the notion of Scottish independence itself. Salmond has set in train  a process though which the creaking centralised and only partly democratic system of government in the UK and especially in England, will be replace by a devolved system on federal lines for the whole Union and all its parts. This will substantially increase the power of each nation to determine the shape of all the issues which affect everybody’s daily life. A voluntary Union in which Scotland will find itself playing a major role on a much broader canvass than would have been possible on its own. All that will be down to Salmond. Without him nothing would have happened.

So the message from this blog to Alex Salmond is this. Rise from your disappointment. It is much better than you think. You may have lost the battle, but shortly it will be seen by all that you have won the war. For all of us.

The Union Holds: Now It is all about England.

Friday, September 19th, 2014

Although many thought that the undecided and undeclared voters would break YES, they mostly broke NO, giving the Better Together campaign a wider margin of victory than it expected after recent poll scares. Scotland has earned the admiration of the world for the flawless way in  which it conducted the referendum, with a record breaking turnout and the complete absence of disorder.  The whole United Kingdom wakes up stronger this morning with a greater sense not only of its own worth, but also by how much it is valued as a power in the world. Moreover the Scots, by their example, have shown how effective democracy can be in a world of violence, discord and civil war.

Although the argument about Scottish independence is now over, the one about the structures of government in the UK as a whole, is about to begin. Central to that is the change in the constitution to prevent MPs from devolved areas voting on English matters. The implications of this are constitutionally huge and will bring about the most profound changes in the way the UK is governed, not least because of the 64 million who populate the Union, 56 million are in England. It will also reaffirm the UK’s durability and modernise the outdated and in parts undemocratic, structures of government. This will in turn strengthen her credentials as a power upon the world stage.

To get there will take a good deal of argument and as in Scotland, passions will run high. After a night more or less without sleep watching the referendum results, it will not be helpful to readers if I attempt to advance the parameters of the problems and opportunities now, but watch this space. Meanwhile it is a good day for the UK, for the EU for NATO. Above all it is a good day for Scotland. We have heard a good deal of nonsense in the recent past about beacons of democracy, which turned out to be no such thing. Well Scotland is a beacon today, and its light is admired the world over.

Gripping Reads

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

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Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

English Nationalism Rising

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

Whatever the outcome of the Scottish referendum, there is coming to the  surface a phenomenon not seen since the end of world war two; English nationalism. Somehow England, as the predominant part of Great Britain, subsumed its identity into Britishness. Welsh and Scots remained so and also British. The Ulster protestants were a law unto themselves and Ireland had already broken away. It was as if England was like large people, conscious of their relative size to those around them, who are unassuming and shy. Whilst the Scottish referendum has awakened in the Scots a huge sense of Scottishness and political awareness, whatever the outcome, so it has awakened something in England.

In many ways this is a good thing, because if it happens that Scotland votes YES, England will have taken already the first subconscious steps to become again what it has not been since the days of Elizabeth I. For it was on her death that the Crowns were united and in those days that meant the governments also. But if Scotland votes NO it will find politics south of the border have changed. Instead of the usual mix of political ideologies,  it will be confronted with a new mix in which English assertiveness will count for much more than it ever did before. Whether Salmond finds himself negotiating for an independent Scotland in a currency union, or devo- max, having failed in his primary objective, what England is willing to agree to will trump what Scotland wants.

Books: Paperback or Download

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

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Each of these books is different and not part of a sequence, but all of them have the common ability to draw you into the story and keep you turning the pages from start to finish. Click on any of the images for my page on Amazon UK and here for Amazon.com

 

Scottish Referendum: Down To The Wire

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

The polls are said to be too close to call,  although they lean towards NO. Referenda are notoriously difficult to poll, as each is individual and cannot be built on previous experience. We can recall that most people thought Quebec would vote to separate from Canada and it stayed. We also have the example of Australia, which almost everyone thought would vote to become a republic, and it decided to stay with the Queen. So we cannot guess where we will be on Friday; waving goodbye or welcoming home. Scotland alone must now decide.

The important thing is to be prepared for all eventualities. It appears we are prepared for none. We have meandered into uncharted territory without any clear idea of where we are supposed to be. The political class has badly failed the people and especially in England, where we will awake on Friday to a new era either as the best part of a diminished nation or the centre of some new federal structure. None of the details have yet been worked out and many are the conflicting interests to be resolved.

What should have happened is that there ought have been a  set of proposals agreed in advance for both the separation of Scotland and devo-max, including currency issues and which Westminster MPs will be allowed to vote for what. The Scots would then have been offered a clear set of prepared alternatives. Instead neither YES nor NO can answer any specific questions from voters in debates and other election exchanges on key issues which are critical. It is all wishful thinking and emotion. There are no level heads with hard facts. So on Friday we can be sure of one thing. There will be argument and confusion as issues are tackled. Certain is a period of uncertainty. Lest us hope it is no worse than that.