We are pre-occupied with the party conference season and the never ending uncertainties of the euro. Little attention is being paid to developments across the Atlantic, yet it is there that the most important election of all is being held in November. It is not just about who is to be President of the United States. It is about which party gains a majority in Congress and which vision of America, of two which are essentially incompatible, gains the support of voters. The worst outcome is a President of one party and a Congress of the other. As we have seen this leads to deadlock and indecisive government over domestic economic and fiscal issues which affect not only Americans, but all in the West. Obama’s difficulties stem in large part to failures during his first two years, which led to the loss of the Democratic majority in the House, which in turn hobbled his programme thereafter.
Americans now have to make up their minds whether they want to give the President a decent chance to finish doing what he promised in the euphoric celebrations following his triumph in November 2010, or whether they feel he has had his chance and it is best to go with the erratic Romney. Having decided that they then have to decide whether to give their choice the Congressional majority a strong president needs to enact domestic policy. The checks and balances so favoured by the founding fathers can lead to damaging stalemate.
A Romney win will herald a more bombastic US foreign policy, although the US is no longer, with all its military might, the voice it once was on the world stage. It will also lead to a mix of fiscal conservatism and trickle down economics, very different to Obama’s neo-Keynesian approach. Euroland should watch carefully, for if Romney does win and it is a big if, Washington, London and Berlin will all have governments which favour cuts above spending. The effect of that could be profound.