Robert Gates’ speech in Brussels was remarkable. It sets out an analysis of America’s relationship with Europe and how this will develop, which corresponds closely to views expressed in this blog and in my book 2010 A Blueprint for Change.I have long promoted American disengagement from Europe and from NATO, not because I am hostile to the US, but because the circumstances which brought America to Europe, first the Nazi, then the Soviet threats, no longer exist.
The outgoing Defense Secretary expects the new generation of rulers in the US to have a post cold war vision and pressing political and financial problems at home. They also have two wars to finish off, in Iraq and Afghanistan. They have long realised the war on terror made more enemies than it captured and the killing of Bin Laden gives them an excuse to wind it down. Even if not all politicians are yet in that place, the majority of voters are, and politicians rush to where the voters gather.
The US funds NATO to the tune of 75% of the cost of the alliance. This is clearly ridiculous in present conditions. But it shows us also how Europe sees itself. It sees itself no longer divided and the rest of the world as an opportunity, not a threat. Its biggest historic military power, Germany, refuses point blank to mess any more with conflicts other than the defence of its own borders, against which there is no realistic threat. Britain and France are the main military powers of Europe now and their joint nuclear deterrents provide the strategic umbrella to give security against rogue states.
Essentially what is happening is that NATO is past its sell by date. It is trying to extricate itself from Afghanistan, it refused to go near Iraq and it has bitten off more than it can chew in Libya, simply because too few of its members, apart from America, France and Britain have any kind of military capability. Indeed it is running, literally, out of ammunition and having to turn, yes, to America, to keep the operation in support of the rebels, going.
From the European point of view it has been very convenient to delegate its security to America, whom Margaret Thatcher in a reference to its immigrant origins, once described as Europe Overseas. The generation with whom that found resonance is now gone. Americans see themselves as Americans. Because the two great potential military aggressors of Europe, Germany and Russia, have now taken new paths, a militarily active US in Europe is in itself more likely to provoke a threat than to defend against one. Thus a Europe at peace is one which does not need American military assets. In return for getting them, it has had to contribute to the fringes of the war on terror, but it is clear from the shortcomings of the Libya operation that those days are over.
So all in all, the Gates speech, which caught many by surprise, describes a tide of events too powerful for politicians on either side of the Atlantic to resist. It is called the tide of history. It flows, unstoppable, down through the ages. In our time the Soviet Union unravelled because it did not work economically, NATO is unravelling because it is no longer needed for its original purpose, nor are its members willing to back with money and military assets some new world role. Repressive government in the Arab world is unravelling because people want to be free.
Russia seeks to become a global economic power and needs a peaceful Europe which in turn, cannot keep the lights on without Russia’s gas and oil, so the interest in peaceful relations is common. There remain ethnic tensions in former Soviet satellites, but these will diminish when Russia no longer feels encircled by NATO and ethnic minorities stop trying to settle old scores when they know they are on their own. China is the rising world power, but that power is based on economic, not military, might. Europe needs to trade with China and its prosperity will become increasingly dependent on the Chinese sphere of influence, but by the same token China knows that its own economic strength is dependent on access to markets in Europe and America. Put simply the global economy reduces the dependence on the military and increases the opportunity for development of mutual interest.
For a long time it has seemed to this blog that these truths lay hidden. Robert Gates’ courageous speech has brought them into the light.