This blog has never approved of this adventure. Nevertheless it is happening. It is futile to bang on about why it should not be when it is; now we need to see what can be done.
William Hague’s Foreign Office has restored its reputation as an independent and important diplomatic force in the world, after the craven Labour years. His bold visit to Benghazi is a clever move to give encouragement at a potential tipping point in the current stalemate, as well as to assess the capacity of the rebels to run a large part, if not all, of Libya. There are now signs that the stalemate may not be quite so stale and may be tipping to the rebels.
Hitherto the problem has been that Gaddafi had the army, while the rebels had untrained fighters. So long as the army remained loyal to Gaddafi, he was relatively safe, if he could dodge incoming NATO missiles. It was also clear that the rebels were an effective armed insurrection, but lacked the power to over-run the whole country. The fact that neither side had the tipping power was evident, yet Gaddafi remained convinced he would win. It is now clear he cannot. He may remain in denial. Many of his officers do not. He can afford to lose ministers. He cannot afford to lose soldiers and especially not experienced commanders of rank.
Meanwhile amateurs who pick up a rifle, willing to die for their cause, who survive the early battles, cease to be amateurs and become veterans. There is increasing evidence of better rebel discipline and tactics. There appears no shortage of troops. This is not the case with Gaddafi. Although he clearly has real and affectionate support among many more than the West likes to acknowledge, this may not run as deep as he believes. Certainly they seem less willing to fight for him, hence the reliance on mercenaries.When the tide turns mercenaries go home.
To win a war without troops on the ground is difficult. Hague’s visit underscores the fact that the protecting civilians language of UNSCR 1973, is now little more than a veil behind which NATO fights for the rebels. Had the original terms been taken seriously, political negotiations undertaken immediately after halting the assault on Benghazi, would have resulted in some kind of partition and would have saved very many lives. With the chant of Gaddafi must go, came the collateral that many would die in the uncertain process of getting rid of him.
To bring an outcome to this mission which gives it a measure of achievement, NATO now has to get on with the job. The destruction of Gaddafi’s fighting machine, whether by missile, bomb, Apache or defection is now the focus and the only focus which will yield a decision. Some leeway in what the Russians can, in mediation, offer Gaddafi and his family may speed the process. It will certainly save some civilian lives. That after all, is what the mission is supposed to be about.