The Hawks are happy, the doves dismayed and the rest apprehensive. The attack on the Gaddafi military infrastructure and forces has begun impressively, with a formidable demonstration of allied technical firepower.These wars always begin well.
What is, once again, unclear is the exit strategy. Where is this going? If Gaddafi’s forces are stopped, as they will be, what happens then? Are the rebels to be allowed to advance? Will the civil war continue between armed militias? Who governs Libya? Will there be two Libyas? What process will help Libyans resolve their differences? Will there have to be a peace keeping force on the ground?
The hope is that Gaddafi will topple. Remember Saddam Hussein. When he was captured everyone thought it was over. In fact it made no difference because the collapse of his regime opened up divisions in the Iraqi state and among its people the planners had chosen to ignore. Do we know for sure what will happen if Gaddafi falls? Have we a plan if he stays? Are the Libyan people now condemned to years of violence among themselves? The UN resolution 1973 expressly forbids regime change. Obama and Cameron are adamant that regime chance is not the objective. Without regime change it is hard to see how the lot of the Libyan people can improve.
What, exactly, is the purpose of this war?