Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

This started as a popular demonstration to end Gaddafi’s rule. It is now a full blown civil war. Militarily, Gaddafi now has the upper hand. The rebels are significantly outgunned and to hold their gains, will require outside support or defections, including equipment, from the regular forces. However, for the rebels, all is by no means lost. The Arab League has well and truly dumped Gaddafi. His regime is without support anywhere in the world. Britain and France are driving hard for a no fly zone. 

The problem is that, rightly, this time, only a minority will consider any military moves to help the rebels and only a tiny minority will consider such move without a U.N. mandate. The Arab League have made a U.N. mandate a condition for their support of a no fly zone. Germany, Russia and China are firmly against any used of armed force, including a no fly zone. That is a formidable combination in the U.N. Our blundering foreign office needs to avoid breaking the consensus which has provided the unanimity which will, in the medium term, prove more and more a problem for Gaddafi. Above all, he wants to divide the West, the Arabs and the U.N. It would be foolish to play into his hands.

The scale of this disaster exceeds modern experience. The loss of life is likely to far exceed the numbers talked of so far. The discipline, calm and response of  Japan’s authorities and people evokes the admiration of all the world. Over forty countries have mobilised to send support. Yet nobody knows how big this disaster actually is or what its consequences will be.

What we can now see is the effect of a major natural event on modern life, with its high population density and technological infrastructure. We need to reflect that these events occur at intervals and will go on occurring. Volcanoes, earthquakes and impacts from space are not things of the past. They are of the present, with many massive ones in the future. We are now called upon to plan better and invest more. Japan was among the best prepared of all the nations on earth, but still the effects are beyond normal understanding.

It is a peculiar irony that we engage in war to kill and destroy with a rationale which somehow articulates that we and we alone, control the powers of destruction. What we control, in the scheme of things is, for the most part, neither here nor there, when the real and natural powers are unleashed for comparison.