The Electoral Reality
There are two ways of looking at this, but first let us return for one moment to the campaigns. Labour’s was a success. The campaign itself was often off track, but at no stage was it off message. That message was simple. We are on your side, we know what we are doing. Don’t take risks. At the beginning Labour faced oblivion. At the end they had halted both the Tory advance before it reached a majority and prevented a Lib Dem breakthrough into its heartlands. It saw off the BNP and Respect. Moreover in the council elections it won outright with a net gain of 400 councillors and 14 councils. The Tories lost 121 councillors and 8 councils. The Lib Dems lost 141 councillors and 4 councils,which considering their smaller base was a much worse outcome than for the Tories. Labour ends therefore defeated, but not beaten, still very much in play and poised for a post Brown resuregence.
The Lib Dems came out best and now have their big opportunity. They must use it well because it will not come again. Beneath the surface the report is not good. Clegg mania may not have added up to a single vote, or it may have staved off a quite serious setback, if the council results are a barometer. Without Clegg and the TV moment they may well have suffered both at the hands of Labour and the Tories, giving the latter a majority. When Clegg negotiates he needs to remember that. He occupies the critical ground on the battlefield but he has no defence in depth because his forces have been mauled.
The Tories have run their worst ever campaign. The gains they have won, which are considerable, were there for the taking if they did nothing at all. The extra effort was needed to get a convincing majority. They had to better the gains of 1910, when a resurgent Tory part recovered from its massacre by the Liberals in 1906 and gained 116 seats. A big challenge but with absolutely every single element of the political weather in their favour. The Big Society, Battersea Power Station, a hardback invitation to take part in government as a gimmick manifesto, all looked immature, unreal and inexperienced. A hesitant and mixed response to the financial crisis followed by financial programme based on tax cuts which everybody knows cannot be afforded, spooked the markets as well as the voters and gave a desperate Brown a really good hand to play. The fact that they are now having to listen to Clegg and his team is a humiliation which may not get them anywhere because of electoral reform demands. That leaves them a minority government, or opposition once more, if Clegg gets what he wants from Labour. In view of the economic storm gathering that may be the best strategic option. Next time round a handful of gains and they are home and dry.
Overall it can be said that the country voted for change. True but only just. The political reality is that this is now a multicultural progressive nation where the the old left and right concept of politics is old hat. Now it is progressive politics against the old tradition. Look at the voting tally. The old tradition , ie the Conservatives,Unionists and UKIP totalled just under 12 million votes. The progressives, Labour, the LibDems, Greens and the Nationalist parties polled over 16 million. Although ridiculed as a coalition of losers, a Lab/Lib Dem government would have a huge majority in popular votes and fit more easily with the public mood.
Clegg and his colleagues must savour their historic place on centre stage. They must put electoral reform first above everything and refuse anything less. If they let the opportunity pass, not only will it not come again but the system will not adjust to a more pluralist and inclusive democracy for which it yearns, for which there is a huge majority in the popular vote and public contempt for politicians and their trade will grow. Third parties will go back to by-election upsets and little more.