Now We Wait
This blog identifies trends and opportunities but it is not in the predictions business. Almost everybody in that business is predicting a hung parliament. We will now look at the best outcome for each party.
The Tories They started this year so far ahead in the polls there was talk of Labour facing a wipe out. They have outspent by a margin all the other parties put together. They have the backing of all but three national papers. Cameron has led from the front night and day 24/7 almost literally.Yet they may not get a majority. This raises too many questions to answer here today. The best for them is a Labour plunge, with Lib Dems taking Labour, but not Tory seats. This would give them a majority of seats on a total percentage well below 40. The worst is a last minute Labour recovery pushing the Tories into second place on seats.
Labour This has been an astonishing campaign with gaffes and disasters at every turn with Brown bottom of every chart and poll. Yet here they are on the up as the campaign ends, Brown battered, bruised and bloodied shouting defiance at every husting to prolonged cheers and standing ovations. I am not sure we know what is going on here. The best for Labour is that Lib Dems pull seats from the Tories and Brown finishes the count with the most seats. A Lib Dem coalition then becomes real. The worst is third place in the popular vote and too few seats to fix a majority with Clegg. Exit Brown. Labour in turmoil squabbling in the political shadows.
Lib Dems Theirs is the first political campaign in UK history to explode into a fireball of light in the course of just ninety minutes. All political parties were caught off guard, including the Lib Dems themselves. Suddenly in with a chance they have fought doggedly and held most of the line against desperate attacks from left and right. They have retreated on issues like immigration which was wise but woolly and Trident which was sensible but vague. Their manifesto was not designed for this kind of front line fighting, but electoral reform and fair taxation have proved pretty deadly weapons. Best for them is the Tories and Labour short of a majority but fairly close, with Clegg able to give power to either. Worst for achieving their fair voting aims is a Tory majority built upon Lib Dem gains from Labour.
Surprises If ever their was an election which could turn out differently to expectations it is this one. The most likely surprise is a clear Tory majority. The next is Labour ahead both in the popular vote and seats. The third, more a dream than a surprise, is Prime Minister Clegg.
Certain things are likely, but anything is possible. Just think back to the political landscape before that first TV debate.