Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

So who won?

If you take a simple view, it is Cameron. But it is not simple. The irony of it all is that although the LibDems failed altogether to capitalise as much as polls suggested they would post the first TV debate and their figures were the most truly unexpected and disappointing of all, Clegg has emerged with the balance. As this blog has said repeatedly and from before the Clegg phenomenon, balance is power.

If Clegg had won over a hundred seats, many from  Labour, the Tories would now have a majority. The Lib Dems would be celebrating and Clegg would be a hero, but  nothing more would have happened. This way the Lib Dems will be able to gain concessions from the Tories, although I doubt Cameron has the authority in his own party to deliver on electoral reform. Labour, on the other hand will give Clegg anything he asks for, possibly even Brown’s scalp. Clegg is quite simply the most powerful Liberal since Lloyd George. He needs to rise to the occasion and get the benefit. His campaign, particularly the last ten days, did not come up to his new level. This time he must do better. 

On the subject of democratic legitimacy Clegg punches well above the weight of his seats in terms of popular vote. He pushes the Tories from 10.7 million to 17.5 million and Labour from 8.6 to 15.5 million. This is a huge lift, giving any coalition a real majority in votes. This would please markets and make tough decisions less subject to challenge.

Confusion

Neither the commentators nor the politicians have slept, nobody knows what is going to happen, some people, a good many, could not even vote. That is very bad. On top of this, the outcome thus far has one very big surprise; the failure of the Liberal Democrat campaign to make the headway thought certain. It is too early to analyse what has happened, not least because it is not over yet. There is, however, one set of figures worth mentioning.

A few moments ago the Tories were on 285 seats with just under 10 million votes. Labour and the Lib Dems combined had the same number of seats but with 14 million votes. This is because the Lib Dems with 23% of the votes have less than 9% of the seats. This is why electoral reform is a must. No other modern democracy works this way. The next hours will show whether our unwritten constitution can deliver a worthy outcome or whether we have to endure a Florida moment.