Month: May 2010

Minority Government This is the worst possible outcome. The minority governments of Labour in 1923, Labour in 1974 and again from 1976 and the Conservatives in the terminal years of the Major government, were all weak governments which fell far short of public expectation and delivered ineffectual outcomes. In a crisis of the kind we […]

Labour Hanging On. Both the polls out today, show Labour and the Lib dems neck and neck in the upper 20s and the Tories back down to the lower 30s. This does not look like an outright Tory win. In fact both polls put Labour just in front on seats, with the Lib Dems with […]

Tory Cheer For the first time for quite a while, there is good news for the Tories. They can now win outright. It is very subtle. It is not a case of having to get to 40% plus. It is to do with the Lib Dems pulling clear of Labour. A Lib Dem surge now can […]

Opininion Poll Caution The latest poll in the Daily Mail gives Cameron 33, Clegg 32 and Brown 24. Using the BBC seat calculator this gives Con 268, Lab 217 and LD136. There are clear deficiencies in the voting system that on 8 points ahead of Labour in the popular vote the Lib Dems get 81 fewer […]