The upcoming year is one of the most difficult to predict in terms of outcome. Instead this blog lists a few things which need to happen.
Eurozone We have to have some clarity here. The ECB has come up with some medium term loans for banks which were hoovered up by these cash strapped institutions, many of which are technically bust. This has bought time, but it has not ended the crisis. The various Euro councils, the EU Commission and the parliament have now to resolve their chronic inability to take decisions, or having taken them, to put them into effect. It is vital for the world that this incoherent and self made crisis begins to resolve in the early weeks of 2012. It will not be possible to conclude the project, but markets will be willing to go the mile if it is possible to discern in which direction. If, in the end, the Euro is going to unravel, we need to get on with it. Bumbling forward from one crisis summit to the next is a guarantee of stagnation.
Washington It is an election year, so fireworks are to be expected. What is new to the world is economic deadlock in the American political establishment, creating dysfunctional government of a kind which neither Americans, nor the rest of the world, are used to. There can be no reliable re-building of the busted economic model in the West until both Europe and America make up their minds about a way forward. If after November we are left with a split Congress and polarised confrontation about the economic way forward, it will be very bad indeed.
Iran This has thus far not been handled well or in a manner likely to yield a good ending. There has to be more engagement and a realistic understanding of just how far and how much states have a right to set agendas outside their borders. Tightening sanctions only strengthens the extremists in any government and offers little historic evidence of any useful progress. Engagement and trade empowers the people and only the Iranian people themselves have the authority and the power to determine a more constructive foreign policy for their country. Banning oil imports will most likely trigger another gulf war and inhibit the supply of oil. This will make a double dip recession a certainty for the entire western economic area.
The UK Coalition It needs to stick to its guns and continue with a robust plan to cut the deficit and cut the size of the state. it will need to be more radical about workplace regulations such as paternity leave, working time directives and so on, to make it easier to enable employers to create opportunities for work. It will also need to be more innovative in finding ways to boost British manufacturing and guard against a recovering founded on shopping with borrowed money.
William Shakespeare: “To mourn a mischief that is past and gone Is the next way to draw new mischief on.”
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