Euro, Debt and Realism
December 19, 2011Gradually irresistible logic and common sense are beginning to drive decisions. It is no longer assumed the euro will survive and everybody is now beginning to plan for its demise, if not totally, in its present form. If it does survive all countries remaining in it will have to adopt economic polices and rules set down by Germany, moderated by France. The euro zone will resemble politically something like the Austro-Hungarian Empire pre 1914. Franco- German domination of lesser nations, with a degree of autonomy but falling short of independent states or states with equal status. The deficit nations of the south will have to drop out, as the austerity required to remain in and repay their debts will cripple at least one, and may be more than one, generation in poverty.
The agreement on a new treaty, vetoed by Cameron, which then became an agreement by 26 out 0f 27, is already unravelling and is politically untenable. The problem, spotted by the ratings agencies and declared by one of them, is that, having failed to set up at the beginning the fiscal union required to run a currency because it could not be agreed, it remains impossible still. Some fudge will not work. Moreover there is a complete absence of any meaningful money for future bail outs and major defaults or haircuts are now certain. Nobody is going to lend to such uncertainty and confusion. When politicians or officials from the euro zone are interviewed in the new heightened political atmosphere, they are at best unconvincing and at worst talking nonsense.
Britain has her own problems on which she must now work with renewed vigour. The reconstruction of the banks and the intended proper fiscal rules for mortgages, both announced today are moves in the right direction. Getting manufacturing going remains a challenge. Europe in difficulties was not part of the plan. Not so the Germans. They already export more to the BRIC countries than they do to Europe. We send half our goods to Europe, and of that the proportion we send to Ireland is more than we sell to all the BRIC countries put together. At least we are starting form the very depths and the sky is the limit. Whether we can reach for it is another matter.
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