That Veto

December 12, 2011 By Malcolm Blair-Robinson

This dynamics surrounding this unexpected move by Cameron, taken in the middle of the night, following a long day, are still rather obscure. In the end it looks as if he felt he had to do something to appease the huge eurosceptic wing of his party.

It would surely have been better to say that Britain saw its over-riding national interest as the survival of the euro and the restoration of growth and stability in the single market and although he was anxious about some aspects, Britain would join in and play its full part in the preparations for restoring world confidence in the single currency. He could have added the caveat that the treaty resulting may very well have to be put to the British people in a referendum and if it were seen that any of its provisions was harmful or vexatious to British interests, the voters would say NO. This would have given Britain considerable political capital and at the same time a not inconsiderable say in the provisions of the treaty.

He has come away with nothing but the praise of those who think we would be better off out of Europe anyway. It may be that Britain is temperamentally better suited to a free market with the U.S., or even going it alone. However this can only come into prospect when the EU is restored to equilibrium and our financial position is vastly improved. Meanwhile we are members of a club, which brings us great benefits in trade and influence and as with all members of joint undertakings everywhere, we have to put the interests of the club as a whole above our own personal interests.

We cannot yet tell how this is going to turn out. We do know that nothing constructive came out of the summit to deal with the near and pressing crisis of confidence and liquidity, which if not resolved will sink the whole thing, whatever treaties are in prospect. We are reminded, when listening to the eurosceptic Tories, of the Confederate zealots in 1861, who celebrated the bombardment of Fort Sumter, which inaugurated the American Civil War. The Southerners were convinced they would win the war and secure their independence. They mis-judged world opinion and their own strength. In the end they lost the war, their independence and 75% of their wealth as well as most of their GDP. Things do not always work out as expected.

It is too early to tell whether the veto will be to Cameron as Munich was to Chamberlain, Suez to Eden and Iraq to Blair. Cameron himself will be hoping that it will be to him as the Falklands to Thatcher. In fact the events to come may be of such magnitude that it will be forgotten about altogether.