The dynamics of these historic events are now too fluid for any prediction of the outcome. The latest declaration by France and Germany about the need for a treaty change and closer economic integration is to state the obvious cause of the crisis, but it useless to resolve it. This is because this is not now a crisis of a currency with a ramshackle method of management. Because of that failure, there is now a sovereign debt crisis in which a large number of countries individually and many individuals within them, have borrowed more than it is mathematically possible to repay. Collectively the problem affects the entire western economic system.
This cannot be wished away with a new treaty. Neither can borrowing more or even borrowing more cheaply solve the long term problem. There are two separate issues. One is countries running budget deficits; the other is repaying the accumulated borrowing. So great have the figures become that the economies and cuts required to cut the deficits are such that growth is rendered impossible. This will make the accumulated debt mountains and the cost of servicing them unsustainable for everyone.
That is because even those now managing, and this includes Germany, do not have enough reserves or credit worthiness to cope with the cost of the collateral damage of defaults by Spain, Ireland,Italy Greece and Portugal and the consequent insolvency of most of Europe’s banks. If these countries muddle forward without defaulting, the consequent squeeze on economic activity for years and years will push the others into the red beyond the level at which they can cope. It is just like the weight of water in the Titanic spilling over from one watertight compartment to another, until the whole thing went under. The only solution was a redesign (which happened to the Olympic) but once the disaster had happened it was too late.
It goes without saying that if the euro survives it must have the framework for a currency to function and this will involve pooled sovereignty from its members. It also goes without saying that in future all states in the west must pay for their needs by investing the savings of their citizens, made from earnings in the creation of wealth, in their collective future and that this cannot be done by borrowing. Money cannot be made. It must be earned. Any suggestion that all that is required is to sit in a deck chair watching the value of property grow and grow and everything can be enjoyed by borrowing against its value, is now proved to be as barmy as the notion that pigs can fly.
The question now is whether there is a route open to allow everyone a chance to start again on a better path; in other words will the opportunity be there to put the clever new treaties and lessons wisely learned into effect? The core of the crisis is the uncertainty of being able to answer yes with any confidence. That is why the ratings agencies have issued their warning. It is also why this blog believes that the west is headed inexorably for a general default and the east is facing a dramatic call on its savings. The west has allowed its greed and lack of realism to create a catastrophic imbalance in the world economy. Unless some correction eventually occurs in that imbalance, the future offers only a long dark night of depression and stagnation.
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