Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Changing Tide

There are times in history when retrospectively a moment is seen when the tide of events begins to flow in another direction. For example, Gettesburg, seen as a stalemate or draw at the time (Lee’s army withdrew intact at its own pace south, while the Union remained on the field, but too mauled to pursue; Lincoln was furious) is now seen as a great Union victory, because it was clear from that moment on that the South could not win the war. It took a further two years for the North to prove it could win, but that July day was the moment when fate pointed the way.

The Summer of 2010 will be seen as the moment when the people of this country lost faith in the politics of  military force. Iraq has no agreed government following its general election months ago and violence increases. The country has not even a power supply to last the day. What is going to happen next nobody knows. In Afghanistan the strategy is unravelling while casualties are  rising. Safe areas are found to be unsafe after all.

The critical fragility of Pakistan as a country, laid bare by monsoon rains and the ambiguity of its key institutions, forced into the war on terror against the will of far too many moderate Pakistanis, is exacerbated by the terrible suffering of so many of its people in the floods and the curious detachment of its President wafting in luxury around Europe. However Pakistan and Afghanistan accommodate each other and eventually settle down, one thing is now clear to those willing to see; it will not be by the path proclaimed from the Pentagon, Nato Headquarters or  the MOD.

There is more. The extraordinary hostility to BP, notwithstanding the disaster which in the end, considering the challenges, it appears to have managed quite well, and the irrational hysteria over the release Lockerbie bomber has left a bad taste in the U.K. The continuous reference to British Petroleum, although its U.S. management and half its shareholders were American, was spiteful and unpleasant. The preposterous invitations from those Senators, to attend before them in supplication to answer questions, of Ministers and ex- ministers of the U.K and Scottish governments, united all elements of the country in hostility.

Most telling of all was the definition by Cardinal O’Brien that Britain has a concept of justice based on mercy and compassion while America is focused on vengeance and retribution. In those brave words the Cardinal struck a chord with the multitude. Nothing in future transatlantic relations will ever be quite the same. This does not mean that the U.S will not plot an attack on Iran or get in a fight with North Korea. These and other as yet unforeseen adventures are variably possible. What is becoming clear is that British politicians will find it much harder to carry the country with them if they decide to join in. Indeed public opinion may force fewer cuts to services and more to the military, removing their power to join in anyway.

We shall then concentrate our defence resourses on systems to defend our island homeland come what may. The strategy which has kept us free and independent for nearly a thousand years since the Norman Conquest, is based on the simple principle that we are too tough a nut to crack. In the crises of the Spanish Armada, Napoleon, the Somme and the Battle of Britain, the Americans, come to think of it, were nowhere to be seen.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 10th, 2010 at 3:09 pm and is filed under Malcolm Blair Robinson. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.