Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

The Spanish authorities now have no choice. Majority public opinion, across all regions and parts of Spain, demands that Catalonia be brought back into the framework of the Constitution and the rule of legitimate law is restored. The Catalan government did not, as it claims, obtain a mandate for independence. Only 42% voted at all and while 90% of those did back independence, that makes only 38% of those entitled to vote. That is not a mandate. It is certainly a fact that there was heavy handed violence from the national police to try and prevent voting, but that is not an excuse. The Catalan authorities deliberately went ahead, in defiance of the Constitution and a court order, with an illegal poll, knowing it would be divisive and the outcome ambiguous.

This blog has already pointed out that unilateral declarations of independence rarely succeed, because at the heart of the democratic notion of independence two things are critical. One is near unanimity and the other is international recognition. Catalonia cannot even muster a bare majority for its reckless project and no significant country in the world will recognise it. The EU will not even mediate. Hundreds of companies have already moved their headquarters out of the region and back into Spain.

Having said all that, it was a big mistake for Spain not to agree to allow a legal referendum, since a majority would have voted No and the whole project would be over for a generation. So it must now be conciliatory in taking back control over this confused region and make clear that once the dust has settled and full orderly functioning of the governance of the region has been restored, a legally authorised referendum on independence will be allowed. Not tomorrow or even soon, but one day. That is how the bubble of Scottish independence was burst. No force, no fluster, just the freedom to choose.

Because that is how democracy works. That is what it is. Spain is a democracy, although a relatively new one. It must gain the confidence of its convictions. All the democratic world will support it.

In the fog of what has become the Brexit battle it is hard to tell, as May confronts her fellow EU leaders in an attempt to get her way and move on to talks about transition, where we are headed. What we do know is we are lost in that fog close to a cliff.

Nevertheless there are some scraps, which put together, can tell us something. The hard Brexiteers are frantically writing letters and sounding off to urge we walk away. Towards the cliff. They say it is only a little jump to the sunny beach below. They urge us thus because the greatest fear tears at their hearts and invades their sleep in the small hours of each night. Their absurd project is in trouble.

There is no longer a majority in the country for Brexit, which latest polls confirm most people now think is a mistake. There is no majority for it in Parliament either. It might just be possible to gain acceptance for a sensible Brexit which leaves most of our current status intact, while detaching the political class from a say in the future.

On the other hand it may very well be that having realised the impact on jobs, living standards and prospects of all of us and the under 50s in particular, people then will focus on the advantages of European citizenship and the empowerment given by electing members of the European Parliament. Because whilst old people may hark back to some Utopia which was never there, the young look forward to a future which could be a great deal better. Not by standing alone in the corner, but by embracing the European family of which we are all a part.

That is when this whole folly will collapse. Brexit will be over.

The narrow, ordered life of a gentle but almost reclusive artist, Jane Block, is disturbed when a bequest, intended for her dead mother, passes to her. Mystery surrounds the nature of the inheritance and Jane is led on a sinister trail to secrets of the past, forcing her to confront her own fears and inhibitions. She finds herself caught in a frightening quest to unravel a mysterious cover-up from World War Two, and in so doing finds intrigue, love and betrayal.

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Whoever investigates the NHS, the outcome is always the same. It is underfunded, understaffed and facing increasing demand. Backlogs and failures are now too numerous attract headlines. Yet as responses to emergencies reveal, it is world class in its skills, dedication and outcomes.

The money issue is solvable. It is a mathematical impossibility to run an infinite service on a finite budget. The solution is to allow the NHS to automatically receive more money the more patients its sees, by operating an insurance based service with the Government the only insurance provider. To do this you reduce income tax and introduce an NHS premium. Everybody pays, subject to normal exemption for low incomes and vulnerability.

The premium relates to income level so the rich pay more. Private insurers cannot be allowed to bid, because a requirement is that everybody is fully covered irrespective of their health or existing conditions and no surcharges are levied. One insurer covers both the sick and the healthy and so has an underwriting profile the same as the national statistics. More than one, and they start to exclude the sick and cover the healthy to boost profits and you end up with US style chaos.

Having organised and income stream, you then have to organise the service. There are about 27 quangos presently engaged in managing the health service and innumerable trusts and boards mixed up with running it. They must all be abolished. A Ministry of Health must be re-established with the minister’s head on the block and a razor sharp axe nearby. They are responsible for every aspect of the NHS, which is run directly by the ministry through Regional, District and Community managers. Doctors treat patients.

Next hospitals run 24/7 on three 8 hour shifts, with no excessive hours for staff and no waiting lists of any kind. You feel unwell, you see your GP today, the consultant tomorrow, you are operated on in the night and you are home for the weekend. It looks more expensive but the true saving across the economy is enormous. Vast armies of bureaucrats collating lists, statistics and car park charges, can retrain as health professionals, making a difference to the needy and and gaining fulfillment  in their lives.

Finally GP’s go back to their main function of diagnosis and co-ordination of their patient’s timely and effective care. They give up on pills which are left to pharmacists. We focus on the causes of illness and disease and find the cure. Drugs are not a cure, they just manage symptoms. That is important but it is a short term help, not a long term answer. For example to lead a life low on exercise and healthy eating and high on junk food, booze and TV, whilst protected from disaster by statins provided at public expense, is a fools game to be brought to an end.

Think about it. The more you do the better it gets.

Reading between the lines of an opaque communique and especially seeing the expression on May’s face as she was driven away, it is clear that it was cordial and friendly but nothing was achieved by this well trailed dinner. Just as nothing  concrete was  achieved by her Florence speech. Maybe a cozier atmosphere but the reality is the same. From the very beginning the Brits have misjudged the mood of the EU and misread the Continental political mindset.

British political traditions are ideological and built on simple majority. But, post the traumas of the twentieth century, the countries of mainland Europe, both west and east, know the dangers of ideologies and the raw power that comes with majority. Their politics are now procedural and built on coalition. Moreover their aim is not to help Great Britain, which after all has chosen to rock the boat and leave. It is rather to steady the ship and preserve the Union. That view is shared widely across the whole EU, not just among the political class, but by business, the work force and the people.

So negotiations, which are often at cross purposes, remain stalled. It is now only a matter of time before the Government will realise that it is not going to get what it wants, whatever it is. That is when things really start to get ugly. Because then it becomes not a story about sunlit uplands but about losers. Multitudes of them. And, mark these word well, they will be angry.

At the heart of the British State lies a secret to keep which a cabal of shadowy establishment figures is authorised to kill. At the centre of the drama is a family with baggage from the past which has access to the truth and determines to expose it. That provokes a battle of wits among security services on both sides of the Atlantic, with links into Russia, Germany, France and Africa. A gripping narrative taking place in the modern day with a cast of ruthless characters determined to kill their way to victory. Male and female, old and young, engaging yet sinister, none quite what they seem. A sophisticated thriller of unusual pace and power written in an edgy modern style.

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This blog has long lamented the inability of world coalitions to restore some kind of political consensus to underpin the fight against IS. Now that militarily IS is but a shadow of its former power and beaten back on every front, the worst possible thing would be for the victors to fight among themselves. Yet with the Iraqi army attacking the Kurds in and around Kirkuk, that is exactly what is happening.

The situation is not helped by the Trump administration’s visceral hostility to Iran, whilst fighting beside and depending upon, Iranian backed militias to achieve victory over IS. There are constant reports of chaotic processes in the White House, which may be true or fake. But the conflicting loyalties of America’s allies in the Mid East, whether those alliances are formally acknowledged or simply accepted as of necessity, have the potential to create a whole new chaos for the future, with no end in sight. This threat is very real. Everybody with a stake in these entangled Middle East conflicts needs to focus. Winning wars and losing the peace is a fool’s game and very costly in human misery. All of it the opposite of what Western civilisation stands for.

It would be very foolish for the redneck Brexiteers to force a reshuffle which dumps Hammond. First of all he is the leader of a dwindling band of competent ministers in the cabinet who can think rationally rather then ideologically. Second because business confidence, already fragile because of Brexit chaos, would plunge further. But most of all because reliable rumour has it that he is planning in his Budget to bring down the curtain on austerity, free up local authorities to borrow enabling them to build council houses big time, borrow to renew and develop infrastructure, reform taxation and reboot the economy, setting it back on a growth trajectory.

If he does all that it could transform the political dynamic for the Tories. If the rumour is false and we get more of the dreary same, with an abundance of rhetoric, a shortage of money and a paralysis of action, built on the shifting sands of ever changing forecasts, it matters not whether you dump him or not. The Tory party will be dead anyway.

The report that NHS staff are to ask questions about a patient’s sexuality ‘to avoid discrimination’ suggests suggest a blunder somewhere.

First of all discrimination of all kinds is illegal and one would imagine entirely absent from the NHS. If it is not, asking intrusive and personal questions gratuitously will not help. Of course, if a patient is attending a sexual health clinic, it is an obvious part of information gathering to determine treatment and advice. But for an old lady having her corns fixed the inquiry has at the very least a smutty ring. And absolutely no relevance to the situation.

We are constantly reminded that the NHS is under pressure and short of staff. This is certainly the case. All the more reason to question this peculiar initiative and a very good reason to close it down.

What matters here is this. The agreement to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons took years to conclude, involved all the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany and also the EU. All signed the treaty. The difference between civilised nations and rogue states is that the former sign agreements and stick to them and the latter tear them up when it suits them. We know Trump hates Iran. Yet America fights beside Iranian backed Shia militias against IS. There is no excuse to mess with this deal, as Trump calls it, because Iran is in compliance with every aspect of the issues covered by it. Moreover every single signatory is opposed to the American position, including Britain, France and Germany as well as the EU.

Trump cares not a jot. His ego far exceeds any other on the planet and if he wants, he will. The difficulty is that now nobody will rely on any agreement his administration seeks to make; least of all North Korea. The notion that they will stop their nuclear weapons development in exchange for a peace agreement in which America plays a part, is now off the table. This is a foolish act by a politically inexperienced incumbent in the White House, who plays to his conservative base before he considers the long term strategic interests of his country.

Of course he must be tough with enemies, but to be effective America must lead the world in reliability and trustworthiness.  After the TPP, the Climate Change Agreement and now this threat to the Iran deal, the signal is clear. You cannot trust America’s signature any more. But Trump does not care. He revels in it. He thinks it makes America Great Again. The sad truth is America just got a whole lot smaller.

It is one thing to be isolationist. It is another to be isolated. And yet another to be shunned.