The Spanish authorities now have no choice. Majority public opinion, across all regions and parts of Spain, demands that Catalonia be brought back into the framework of the Constitution and the rule of legitimate law is restored. The Catalan government did not, as it claims, obtain a mandate for independence. Only 42% voted at all and while 90% of those did back independence, that makes only 38% of those entitled to vote. That is not a mandate. It is certainly a fact that there was heavy handed violence from the national police to try and prevent voting, but that is not an excuse. The Catalan authorities deliberately went ahead, in defiance of the Constitution and a court order, with an illegal poll, knowing it would be divisive and the outcome ambiguous.
This blog has already pointed out that unilateral declarations of independence rarely succeed, because at the heart of the democratic notion of independence two things are critical. One is near unanimity and the other is international recognition. Catalonia cannot even muster a bare majority for its reckless project and no significant country in the world will recognise it. The EU will not even mediate. Hundreds of companies have already moved their headquarters out of the region and back into Spain.
Having said all that, it was a big mistake for Spain not to agree to allow a legal referendum, since a majority would have voted No and the whole project would be over for a generation. So it must now be conciliatory in taking back control over this confused region and make clear that once the dust has settled and full orderly functioning of the governance of the region has been restored, a legally authorised referendum on independence will be allowed. Not tomorrow or even soon, but one day. That is how the bubble of Scottish independence was burst. No force, no fluster, just the freedom to choose.
Because that is how democracy works. That is what it is. Spain is a democracy, although a relatively new one. It must gain the confidence of its convictions. All the democratic world will support it.