Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Reading between the lines of an opaque communique and especially seeing the expression on May’s face as she was driven away, it is clear that it was cordial and friendly but nothing was achieved by this well trailed dinner. Just as nothing  concrete was  achieved by her Florence speech. Maybe a cozier atmosphere but the reality is the same. From the very beginning the Brits have misjudged the mood of the EU and misread the Continental political mindset.

British political traditions are ideological and built on simple majority. But, post the traumas of the twentieth century, the countries of mainland Europe, both west and east, know the dangers of ideologies and the raw power that comes with majority. Their politics are now procedural and built on coalition. Moreover their aim is not to help Great Britain, which after all has chosen to rock the boat and leave. It is rather to steady the ship and preserve the Union. That view is shared widely across the whole EU, not just among the political class, but by business, the work force and the people.

So negotiations, which are often at cross purposes, remain stalled. It is now only a matter of time before the Government will realise that it is not going to get what it wants, whatever it is. That is when things really start to get ugly. Because then it becomes not a story about sunlit uplands but about losers. Multitudes of them. And, mark these word well, they will be angry.

At the heart of the British State lies a secret to keep which a cabal of shadowy establishment figures is authorised to kill. At the centre of the drama is a family with baggage from the past which has access to the truth and determines to expose it. That provokes a battle of wits among security services on both sides of the Atlantic, with links into Russia, Germany, France and Africa. A gripping narrative taking place in the modern day with a cast of ruthless characters determined to kill their way to victory. Male and female, old and young, engaging yet sinister, none quite what they seem. A sophisticated thriller of unusual pace and power written in an edgy modern style.

Amazon.uk      Amazon.com

This blog has long lamented the inability of world coalitions to restore some kind of political consensus to underpin the fight against IS. Now that militarily IS is but a shadow of its former power and beaten back on every front, the worst possible thing would be for the victors to fight among themselves. Yet with the Iraqi army attacking the Kurds in and around Kirkuk, that is exactly what is happening.

The situation is not helped by the Trump administration’s visceral hostility to Iran, whilst fighting beside and depending upon, Iranian backed militias to achieve victory over IS. There are constant reports of chaotic processes in the White House, which may be true or fake. But the conflicting loyalties of America’s allies in the Mid East, whether those alliances are formally acknowledged or simply accepted as of necessity, have the potential to create a whole new chaos for the future, with no end in sight. This threat is very real. Everybody with a stake in these entangled Middle East conflicts needs to focus. Winning wars and losing the peace is a fool’s game and very costly in human misery. All of it the opposite of what Western civilisation stands for.

It would be very foolish for the redneck Brexiteers to force a reshuffle which dumps Hammond. First of all he is the leader of a dwindling band of competent ministers in the cabinet who can think rationally rather then ideologically. Second because business confidence, already fragile because of Brexit chaos, would plunge further. But most of all because reliable rumour has it that he is planning in his Budget to bring down the curtain on austerity, free up local authorities to borrow enabling them to build council houses big time, borrow to renew and develop infrastructure, reform taxation and reboot the economy, setting it back on a growth trajectory.

If he does all that it could transform the political dynamic for the Tories. If the rumour is false and we get more of the dreary same, with an abundance of rhetoric, a shortage of money and a paralysis of action, built on the shifting sands of ever changing forecasts, it matters not whether you dump him or not. The Tory party will be dead anyway.