Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Sir Simon Fraser, the former head of the Foreign Office is not a party politician, but he is nevertheless at the centre of what is really going on in the Brexit negotiations. His comments that things are not going well, because of the splits in the government and the lack of clarity about where GB is headed, should worry everybody. This is very much the line taken by this Blog for a long time, but such reinforcement at this level of authority gives a new urgency to our county’s predicament.

Meanwhile Sir Vince Cable at the weekend made some characteristically pointed comments about the older generation, who mostly voted for Brexit and the younger generation who mostly voted to Remain.  I was shocked how many people I met of my own generation who spoke in selfish, blinkered terms at the time of the vote, without caring at all how young people, who own the future, felt. So this Blog heartily endorses Sir Vince’s view that the old shafted the young.

Disquiet about the whole project is now growing at every level. Either the Brexiteers get their act together and come forward with workable, comprehensive and acceptable proposals as to how we exit the EU without trashing the economy, or face the fact that their project has failed and will never happen. Because if it gets to jumping off a cliff to achieve the exit, the House of Commons will vote it down. Any following general election or referendum will sink Brexit for good.

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At last the Trump administration has a breakthrough which will not only restore international faith in America to lead, but will secure the Trump presidency. Few in the world will see this but mark my words, this is a game changer. For the first time for a very long time, America, China and Russia have voted together for the same outcome on the Security Council; no vetoes or abstentions. There have been intensive negotiations behind the scenes and some very grown up comments from the State Department. America is not interested in regime change in North Korea, it does not want a unified Korean Peninsular, it does not want to threaten Kim Jon Un or his government. But it will not and cannot accept threats of nuclear attack upon the United States or its allies.

This is clever politics of a kind Trump promised, deals of mutual interest. Kim Jon Un can claim the country is no longer under threat from the U.S. and enter into talks of some kind to gradually unravel the nuclear programme. With the U.S., Russia and China all singing from the same sheet, his only other option is oblivion.

But it is in the U.S. itself that the game changer has happened. Congress has just imposed sanctions on Russia, to the fury of the White House and the EU; all part of a Democrat led obsession, into which many Republicans have been sucked, that Russia is an enemy and a threat. Collusion, hacking, meetings, whatever and so on have engulfed Capitol Hill and paralysed its ability to contribute to constructive government.  The world has looked on perplexed as the doleful Washington procession of Special Prosecutor, endless hearings, a Grand Jury, leaks and rumours have eclipsed the concept of useful government and ignored all the real issues which need solution.

Trump is not perfect, but he has now proved that he can deliver outcomes which most cannot and that the world can gain something from his presidency, in exchange for suffering climate change denial and a more questioning attitude to Europe and free trade. It also shows that the White House, now under the command of General Kelly, is coming together as a unified team after the confusion of the early months. The message is  that Congress can play its games, but the government of the United States will go on regardless and  the binge on demonising Russia is self defeating and contrary to the interests of the United States. Unless the investigators can come up with something real. But it would have to be very real and very big. Like Trump receives a monthly pay check from the Kremlin. Short of that the Democrats will just have to get back to  work on behalf of the people.That is why they are there in the first place.

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Mark Carney’s downbeat assessment yesterday confirms what everybody knows; the economy is slowing, incomes are not keeping pace with inflation and Brexit uncertainty is beginning to bite. Quickly the Brexiteers rush to the airwaves to denounce the governor whose forecasts, like everyone else’s, are often wrong. Meanwhile growth is picking up in the US, the EU and all across the world. But not in jolly Brexit Britain.

The crunch is this. It is now clear to the world that the government does not really know what it is doing over Brexit, what it will agree to and how it all will be implemented. Meanwhile although manufacturing and exports are up because of the falling pound, investment, to back the drive for exports and the restoration of home manufacturing capacity of the stuff we use, is just not happening. But the downside, falling purchasing power and rising inflation, is.

It is not clear whether we will be in or out of the customs union, or if that is clear, what the terms will be. The possibilities promoted by various competing members of the befuddled Cabinet vary from cliff edge to tariff free and on every other issue associated with this disaster there is absolutely no clarity at all. So no wonder investment has dried up.

It should not be like this. There should be a huge programme of government investment in a major economic reboot to guarantee that whatever the final outcome, the UK economy is on the up and able to exploit whatever opportunities appear. Business should be given the confidence and the clarity that will drive record investment, new start ups, home manufacturing, innovation, the list is endless.

This surely be the most feckless government since 1945. Whatever your politics and whether you are Brexit or Remain, it has been obvious for years that there are structural problems with the shape and delivery of our economy and even without the referendum, urgent reform was called for. Now we are embarked on an adventure in uncharted waters, we must deal with these issues so as to be able to make the very best of all the opportunities that the changes will bring, as well as cope with the worst of the things which will inevitably go wrong. Any government that does not drive this is not fit for purpose.

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Congress, now obsessed by the notion of Russia and unable to think in long strategic terms, has acted in short political terms, believing that its stupid sanctions, which an angry Trump had no option but to sign into law, will ingratiate it with voters. In fact most voters are fed up with Russia, while a large part of the rest of the world is fed up and exasperated with America.

Europe is furious about these new strictures because they have the potential to interfere with its own dealings with Russia, in particular in the energy sector. The plain fact is that nothing which is of real importance to America can be achieved without Russian (and Chinese) cooperation. There is a new world dynamic out there which an ignorant Congress has failed to spot. What would be a real disaster for America and for the world would be a weakened and unstable Russia.

At the heart of this folly is the cultural belief in the impregnable integrity of America. Since the British were kicked out, no uninvited foreign foot has trod upon its soil, nor destruction fallen from the sky. Even 9/11, though planned outside, was organised and executed from within. So the notion that foreign hackers, whether or not government authorised, could attempt to swing an election one way or the other is a violation akin to rape of the very essence of the nation itself.

At least that is how the political class sees it. The people could not care less. They take such things for granted. That is modern technology, most of it invented in America. And there is another thing. The people hate the political class anyway.

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The unjustified hike of electricity prices by British Gas is all to do with the inefficiencies of that company and nothing to do with energy costs, which are in fact reducing. What this underscores is that a public utility is a unique entity. It is not like any other sort of business. From the inception of the notion of a universal public service, perhaps like the Royal Mail and later public drainage, some form of public authority was considered the best way to deliver them.

Then came Thatcher and the attack on public ownership, the demonisation of the State, the dismissal of society ‘there is no such thing’, and the sovereignty of the individual interest over the public good. This blog regards that as one of the most damaging political philosophies ever to take root, as its outcome, the disenchantment which has led to Brexit, the chaos of trying to implement it, the crisis in public service provision, soaring personal debt, the inability to balance the Budget and many other evils, all lead back to the launch of this misguided tinkering in the sensible order of modern interdependent civilisation.

Before the electricity was privatised we had the most advanced generation and distribution system in the world. Energy costs were reasonable. We led the world in building nuclear power plants. Then we privatised. You know the rest.