Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Not since 1945 has Labour had such a surge in its voter base. Tories try to salvage some of their pride by saying May got more votes than Blair in 1997 (but not as many as Major in 1992). But Corbyn achieved a much bigger increase, beating Blair in 2001 and 2005 and Gordon Brown in 2010 by a staggering 4 million votes. Indeed only Blair’s landslide in 1997 and Wilson’s win in 1966 exceed Corbyn. That is a spectacular political earthquake which fundamentally changes the political weather, although Labour is not in power. Moreover the majority of the members of the new House of Commons support a left leaning political agenda which is very close to Corbyn and very far from May. And in a hung parliament, where power is split from office, that counts for everything.

So May leads a government which will have to accept the maths of democracy that will drive her prospects from now on. Her manifesto is binned in its entirety and what is coming in the Queen’s Speech are some bolt ons to existing government programmes. All of it will take account of the new political tide which is seeping fast into every nook and cranny of the national culture.

Out  are

Austerity

Hard Brexit

An Economy ruled by Markets

A Shrinking State

In  Are

An Economy for the Many not the Few

Soft Brexit driven by economic necessity, not immigration

Financial stimulus through borrowing and printing

Growing State Responsibility

May’s survival depends upon her being able to deliver on the list of Ins. She has a majority of only six, even with the toxic DUP. So four unhappy people in a crucial vote and one of those can be an abstention, and it’s over to Corbyn.

May is reported telling her MPs

‘I got us into this mess and I will get us out of it.’

If she were truly reformed she would have said

‘I got us into this mess and together we will get out of it.’

But it was a first step on her road to reality.

May is now stripped of all political power. But the political pot is at boiling point with many elements bubbling around. Here are some of them.

A spokesman for the DUP has said  his party’s toxic attitudes to abortion, sexual orientation, climate change and other issues, were shared within many parts of the Tory party. If that idea takes off, the Tory party is electorally dead.

The DUP is anti austerity, pro triple lock, pro universal winter fuel allowance, anti dementia tax, anti hard Brexit and pro an open border with Ireland. Hardly an ally of the Tories surely?

The Scottish Conservatives are anti austerity, pro soft Brexit, pro triple lock and winter fuel allowance and anti dementia tax. All of that is opposite of the Tory manifesto.

The Cabinet is  split between soft and hard Brexit supporters. But negotiations are about to begin. The threat to walk away is simply ridiculous. The other side knows May is on borrowed time and parliament would force her back to the table. There is absolutely no majority in parliament or the country for a hard Brexit which damages the economy even in the short term.

The reality is that the whole political agenda and conversation has now swung Labour’s way. There are more members in parliament broadly in sympathy with its new vision of a different political and economic settlement, than there are in sympathy with the old vision of the Tories. May will be able, we imagine, to get her Queen’s speech through, although it could well suffer amendments. She will get her budget through only if austerity is rolled back and it contains significant measures to stimulate the economy, which means more printing and borrowing. She cannot have her grammar schools. Free school lunches will stay. The list is long and growing.

So May, her cabinet and and the unhappy Tories in the Commons will bear all the burdens of office, but the power is already with Corbyn.  And after nearly forty years in the Commons he knows where all the levers are and how to pull them. That is why he looks so chipper.

If May were to return to the Palace and inform the Queen that she could not, after all, form a government, the Queen would have to send for Corbyn and let him have a go. Likewise if she failed to get her Queen’s Speech through the Commons. But if she falls after that, because the government is in place,  it would be correct for her to remain as caretaker while her party elects a new leader, whom the Queen would then send for. Corbyn would not get a look in.

It was therefore critical to the survival of the Tory government that May’s rumoured intention to resign on Friday morning was stopped by the senior members of the Cabinet and why they took control at that point. From then on May is doing their bidding, not the other way around and as soon as they have managed to get the government constitutionally on the road they plan to dump her. She was obliged to fire her two minders, without whom she is intellectually sterile, but to avoid her becoming dysfunctional, they allowed her old university chum, the amiable and emollient Damien Green, to be appointed First Secretary. Because he is an ardent Remainer they demanded she bring in a balancing high profile Brexiteer. May’s arch enemy, Michael Gove, the man who knifed Boris, made a surprise return. It is not clear whether Gove and Boris have made up and demanded his inclusion or whether May appointed Gove to shackle Boris.

Constitutionally May is now safe unless some new difficulty arises before the State Opening and the Queen’s Speech. She could fall if the Commons does not pass the Queens Speech, but after that she will go when the Cabinet decides. Because, although British Prime Ministers and Governments are possessed of extraordinary executive powers delegated by the Queen, these are conditional. Parliament has the power to sack the government by expressing no confidence in it, in which case the prime minister goes down too. But the Cabinet can lose confidence in the prime minister, in which case the incumbent goes but the government survives. As in the cases of Neville Chamberlain and Margaret Thatcher and in due course May herself.

If, through some circumstance not yet foreseen, May falls and Corbyn is sent for but cannot get a Labour Queen’s Speech through the Commons, there would be a general election. Labour would win it with a hefty majority. The Tories will do anything to avoid that happening until they have a new leader in place.

The issue of whether the the government can continue in its impartial role within the terms of the Good Friday Agreement if one of the parties against whom it may have to mediate, the DUP, is propping up the Tory party in office at Westminster, is political not constitutional. Any MP elected to parliament is constitutionally entitled to take part in government. The appropriateness of such action is political, as are the consequences, however unwelcome.

Finally the delusional May has now, I think, learned that it is not her government, as she said during the election in her I Me Mine campaign, but Her Majesty’s Government. The power of the Prime Minister is in the hands of the Cabinet and the power of the government is in the hands of the House of Commons. The power of the Commons is in the hands of the People. This she is now discovering. But it is too late. She is now politically neutered as all can see and in office only to keep the Tory party in power. It dare not return to the People until it has got rid of her.

Just to add fuel to the flames of the fire in which Tory credibility is now roasting, Labour has a six point lead over them in the latest opinion poll. It happens to be the one which came closest to predicting the actual result, so you can take it seriously.

Europe this morning looks on in disbelief at the extraordinary spectacle of a complete political collapse of the government of the United Kingdom as its wounded leader, described as a dead woman walking by the former Tory Chancellor, struggles to glue a fix with the most reactionary political party in Europe, in order to cling to power with, if it agrees, a majority of two. The DUP may have a constituency for its outrageous platform in the peculiar sectarian environment of protestant Northern Ireland, but its recorded views on a range of social and human rights issues are repellent to millions upon millions of people in the United Kingdom. Significantly for those who value democracy over the political fix,  fewer than 300,000 votes gain the DUP ten Westminster MPs, whereas the Greens have only one MP with over 500,000 votes.

This is not strong and stable leadership to get the best for Britain. This is a betrayal of all that is best in Britain. It is power at any price, informed by delusional reasoning and paid for by moral bankruptcy. Already it is in disarray with statements from Downing Street being corrected in the night as to whether there is or is not a deal agreed. To lose an election is an accepted political outcome. And in the context of what she had before and what she asked voters to give her, May lost this one big time.

To form a minority government and move forward on a broadly acceptable programme, very different from her previous opaque aspirations but acceptable to parliament, would be worthy, if humiliating. But to be willing to engage in the political equivalent of supping with the devil, will inflict a mortal blow upon the credibility of the Tory party in the country and the authority of her government all across the world and, most particularly, in Europe.

May will indeed be a dead woman walking. But she will not walk far.

There is no doubt the Tories won the election in total seat numbers, but as a measure of the direction of travel, seats alone are not enough. You need also to look at the votes and especially the increase in votes. Here are some figures for you to compare. The Tories lost 13 seats, gained 2.3 million votes and increased their vote share by 5.5%. Labour gained 30 seats, added 3.5 million votes and upped their share by 9.8%. Labour clearly has the more impressive advance.

The total votes polled by the Tories in 2017 was 13,667,213.     Labour scored 12,874,985. The Tories clearly achieved the most votes but the margin is not great, well below 1 million. Labour’s total looks even more impressive when compared to the 8.6 million of Gordon Brown in 2010.

An alliance between Tories and the DUP would account for 13,959,529 million votes. A Progressive Alliance comprising Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Greens would total 16,914,113 million. That is nearly 3 million more than the Tory alliance. Remember that figure. It may become critical over the next few days. When the Corbyn team talk of forming a government they have clearly looked at those figures too. Moreover their partners would be similar in outlook and decent. The DUP are anathema to everybody except the delusional May.

Yesterday May went to see the Queen, then stood in Downing Street and announced that, with the support of her friends the DUP, she was forming a new government. So where is it?

The government seems to have vanished. No ministers have been seen going in and out of  Number Ten, as is normal at times like this. Not a single Cabinet minister has appeared in public or given an interview since the shock outcome of the election. Last night one of them,Chris Grayling, appeared on an election edition of Any Questions and if you listened to his answers with a seasoned political ear, he had no idea what was going on.

This Blog smells a rat. I think there might be a crisis. I am not sure the Cabinet is backing May.  There are clues that all is not going to plan. She does everything without consulting colleagues. Well maybe this DUP thing is a step too far. Maybe the grandees will  not run with this.

Perhaps it will be over sooner than we think.

That it has come to this beggars belief. The power sharing government of Northern Ireland has collapsed because the sectarian hatred, prejudice, provocative Orange culture and unwillingness to compromise of the DUP, not only acted as the wick which kept the fire of the Troubles burning, but has prevented the final completion of the peace process, which has transformed the lives of all communities in Ulster. In addition that party is out of step with the rest of the United Kingdom in the disgraceful opposition to same sex marriage and abortion.

These people are now referred to by Theresa May as her ‘friends and allies’ with whom she plans to strike a deal to keep her in Downing Street. The Tory party must, if it allows her to go down this dark and intimidating alley, hang its head in shame. This is not one nation politics for decent caring people; it is power at any price.

As this Blog has been promoting all along the young turned out and delivered the biggest political upset since way back, which few saw coming. It is a political calamity for the over confident May, who thought she was running for President with her I, Me, My campaign , full of hot air, empty of detail and scared of debate. Her position is precarious, her is authority incinerated, she is the laughing stock of Europe and her leadership is flawed. Her party is gripped by collective rage that she threw away their mandate by betting the house on the vanity that she was a star. She says she will not resign. From the Queen of U-Turns that mean she probably will.

That is all for today. I have been up all night but, my goodness, it was worth it. Wow!