We have had Labour’s offering, which is a courageous swing to the left, changing the nature of the political conversation and not only putting clear blue water between Labour and Tory, but an ideological ocean. At last we are back to a left and a right, which makes for much healthier politics, more constructive opposition as well as better focused government. Voters have a real choice to make and nobody needs to feel abandoned or left out. This blog’s mantra, as regulars are beginning to learn, is that you campaign from left or right but because you must govern for all, either side in victory is pulled towards the centre ground. If you campaign from the centre, you do so in a void, tinkering with trivia. With a sigh voters declare ‘they are all the same’ and lose interest.
Since their formation the Liberal Democrats have managed to attract in good times 6.6 million votes (2010). Many of these came from Labour voters fed up with abandonment by New Labour, the effect of this was mainly north of the Home Counties, and from Tory voters who leaned further left than the post Thatcher Tory party, which had rather lost its way. These gave Lib Dem victories in the South and West. There is also a traditional liberal following in Wales and Scotland.
However in 2015 they suffered catastrophic losses, 49 seats, leaving them right back at square one on the same level as their predecessor, the historically glorious but marginalized Liberal party. There were three reasons for this. The first was that Tory voters went back to their own party because, as the Lib Dems had been in coalition with them, they might as well vote for the real thing anyway. Labour supporters, dismayed that their left of centre refuge from New Labour had joined with the Tories, voted UKIP instead. Finally the young vote on which they had in the past relied, outraged at the flagrant breaking of the pledge not to increase tuition fees, walked away, many vowing never to return.
So the Lib Dem planners have had a challenge to come up with a distinctive offer, which can be heard above the clamour of the contest between the big two. They have done that. There is some candy on their stall which will appeal here and there, but the cake is the promise of a second referendum, which will offer the chance to vote on the final outcome of the Brexit negotiations, including the option of abandoning Brexit altogether. This gives them a message to hammer home across media and doorstep, soundbite and meeting which is distinctive and different.
It also takes shrewd account of the fact that of the millions who voted Brexit, a high proportion were not voting about Brexit, but about having their voice heard and cutting immigration. But all the millions who voted Remain did so because they believe in the EU, take pride in their EU citizenship and their sovereignty democratically expressed in voting for members of the European parliament. There was no sub text or grievance message and very large numbers of them are aghast at the wild lurch into nowhere that their country is taking. It may well be the the Lib Dems offer to them a voting option that many will find attractive. If that happens it will not propel the Lib Dems to power, but it could swing the election.
But above all it offers to the British people a clear three way choice unseen in decades. Let us hope many more turn out to exercise it.
