Readers know that this blog always takes a measured and generally, in spite of all its flaws and assertiveness, positive view of Russia. Readers also know that my contempt for the Foreign Office analysis of what our relations with Russia ought to be, is almost total.
For Americans, whilst most enemies in their history have been something that happened, but barely got under their skin, there are two that were part of their upbringing, their psyche and their culture. The first is in the past. It was the British Empire. You have to read contemporary correspondence and diplomatic exchanges to see just how dangerous things became during the civil war period (1861-65) and how relentless was the ambition to supplant the Brits as the number one World Power in the first half of the twentieth century. By then the rivalry fell short of enmity, but beneath the smooth surface of transatlantic relations there was always a bitter edge. To the north of the US lay Canada as an independent country bound into the British constitution, a constant reminder of the failure of the original plan that it too should be part of the United States.
The second enemy was Russia. But not at first. Indeed America and Britain worked surprising well with Stalin during World War II. FDR got on so well with Stalin that he began to see how, if he promoted the Soviets to great power status, he would correspondingly reduce the power of the British Empire. Churchill became alarmed at the way he found himself at times sidelined, as Stalin and FDR began to communicate directly with each other, rather than through the UK as had been the case at the beginning. The carve up of Europe which sowed the seeds of the cold war after the German surrender was not to Britain’s liking at all. This anxiety was justified in British eyes by the subsequent turn of world events. America soon became, via McCarthy and his followers, hysterically anti-communist (it remains an illegal political philosophy, peculiar in an open democracy), so both sides of the Atlantic were once again in step.
But the real problem between America and Russia, which was not ended with the conclusion of the cold war, began with the Sputnik, when a stunned America discovered that the Soviets were ahead of them in missile technology. This was reinforced by the Cuba missile crisis and the dawning recognition, which became a cultural and visceral fear, that Russia is the first and only country in American history which has the power to threaten the very existence of the US, indeed to wipe it from the map. And that power, as Putin keeps murmuring in the background lest it be forgotten, remains.
Trump is an impulsive debater, an unguarded Tweeter but a rational thinker. He knows that soon China will also have a enormous destructive power from a growing missile capability and he sees big economic issues likely to lead to worsening relations. He is prepared to challenge and spar with China, because he has a lot to gain in jobs for the forgotten rust belt workers and a more equal business relationship. But America wants nothing whatsoever from Russia other than a partnership to stop the spread of Islamic terrorism and middle east wars, and a de-tuning of rising tensions in Eastern Europe, which are both contrived and unreal, but expensive to feed. So he plans a love in with Putin for which preparations among aids are well in hand.
Britain, the biggest listener and spymaster in the world, has been horrified that once again it might be cast aside from its BFF status like in the sunset days of FDR. So it was behind the tip-off to the US that warned of the Hilary hack and one of its ‘retired’ MI6 officers is the author of the Trump Moscow prostitute, weapons of mass destruction style, dossier. At one level these tricks have worked. Most of America is now in fear of ‘threats’ from Russia. Except Trump. And he is the only one who counts. Now. So the UK foreign office will have to dry its tears and fall in line. Or, and this is already under way, draw closer to China. That could get very interesting. There are a lot of fools in the foreign office, but maybe not everyone?
