It appears too close to call. The scientific evidence, polling, points to a Clinton win and this is what most commentators on both sides of the Atlantic expect. But no one is betting on it. Because the Trump campaign has huge momentum and there are continuous anecdotal reports that those who travel the country encounter more Trump enthusiasm than the Clinton lead in the polls suggests should be there.
We do know that Americans are widely embarrassed by the most extraordinarily abusive and divisive campaign perhaps since the 1850s, with two very different candidates, but both among the most hated ever. Yet here Trump has the edge. Nobody wants Clinton, but people are voting for her, including republicans, to keep Trump out. Some are voting for Trump to keep Clinton out but most of his support comes from people who believe in him as their champion and agent of change. Whoever wins in the early hours of Wednesday, America will appear to change, yet the truth is that it has changed already. These two unlikely contenders are not the reason for that change but the product of it. Profound change about what America is and what it stands for. The rest of the world tries nervously to work out what that means.