The SNP is back on the agenda with early preparation for another independence referendum. Most polls show there is still a majority for staying in the union with the UK, in spite of the Brexit vote, but hard Brexit could change that. Only a movement on average of three percentage points would be needed. To keep […]
If you are going to negotiate a deal, you are a fool if you do not carefully consider what the other side needs to get out of it. Me first negotiations take on the format of threats and work only if you have the power to threaten. So a look now at where the EU […]
There has never been a presidential contest in which one candidate was in as much trouble as Trump. Yet two new polls put Trump 2 points ahead nationally (Rasmussen) and tied (L A Times). It is now clear that the voters, perhaps the majority, are determined to kick the establishment very hard and the conventional unsuitability […]
The rather bizarre stand-off between Unilever and Tesco introduces an unexpected consequence of Brexit and its impact on the value of the pound. This blog has many times pointed out that the fall in the value of sterling is a good thing and there can be no economic recovery without it. However it is critical […]
That question is impossible to answer. By any conventional political measure, whether it is opinion polls, or experience of what can work and what cannot, the Trump campaign is over. The Republican party has deserted him, women are now coming forward with groping tales, unwanted kisses and similar smut, the tax row continues to grumble deep […]
Boris Johnson’s call for demonstrations outside the Russian embassy yesterday in parliament were childish. He has turned out to be a very big disappointment to many in his first cabinet post, demonstrating incompetence and poor judgement and appearing out of his depth. The terrible suffering in Aleppo shocks the world. There are two sides in every […]
There is something of a fog wafting through international affairs at the moment; the US election, Brexit, Syria, Globalization, Debt mountains, low growth etc. etc. What shines brightly in the gloom is the fall in sterling. Although this is causing anxiety among some parts of the global investment community, it is very good news for the […]
The Government has rejected increasingly strident calls from senior MPs from all parties that the House of Commons must have a vote about the basic elements of the government’s plans for Brexit. Downing Street asserts that, following the referendum result it is right and proper to proceed according to the mandate given by the people, […]
The Parliamentary Labour Party, which its stalwarts claim nearly met its doom under the ultra left Michael Foot, is now having tantrums about how the Shadow Cabinet was chosen and appointed. Never mind the detail; they are behaving like children. They mounted a rebellion and lost spectacularly and it is now time to knuckle down or get […]
Or is he? There is universal condemnation, outrage and dismay about the groping tape. Trump is isolated without any defenders. He has come forward with a comprehensive apology. Things must be bad because that is new from him. And yet it seems always to be the case that he emerges from these terminal (for any normal […]