The SNP is back on the agenda with early preparation for another independence referendum. Most polls show there is still a majority for staying in the union with the UK, in spite of the Brexit vote, but hard Brexit could change that. Only a movement on average of three percentage points would be needed. To keep the union intact will require a Brexit which looks at least as attractive as being in the EU when the benefit of being part of the UK is added. Can May deliver that?
Well we know so little of what her plan is we cannot say. But if we look at the evidence, the referendum vote was for curbs on immigration, a return of sovereignty and no more payments to Brussels. That is a hard Brexit. Unfortunately voters were also told that there would be no problem getting a cosy deal with Europe which would keep trade (and jobs) flowing normally. That is a hard Brexit with a soft centre and there is next to no chance of that. So what did Leavers vote for exactly? Would there still be a majority for Brexit if that meant higher prices and lower growth at least for a while, with job losses and no free access to the single market? You could argue that the warnings from Remain were so blood curdling that everyone knew the risks. Or you could argue that Leave told porkies and misled voters.
Parliament, which is sovereign, might have to decide. There are several problems here. The government is alleging that it has sovereignty, not parliament. This is being challenged in the courts. Parliament is squaring up to a constitutional argument with its own government. There is no majority in it for Brexit, let alone a hard Brexit. The survival of the Union, an issue attached to hard Brexit, could become a very serious issue indeed. That then begs another question; where is England headed? Does it know? Boris evidently could only make up his mind by writing two conflicting articles before opting for Brexit. Really?
This is going to get very messy. The absence of a properly prepared plan for the biggest post WWII foreign and economic policy adventure is beginning to tell. There are obstacles popping up on every front, whichever way you want to go. There are strong rumours of serious disagreement in the government, causing paralysis at the top. Donald Dusk, President of the European Council, has put it very simply. Britain has only two choices. Hard Brexit or No Brexit.
Unless this government can bring some clarity to this confusion and improve its relationships within itself and with parliament, you may begin to hear more about the second choice.