Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

The rather bizarre stand-off between Unilever and Tesco introduces an unexpected consequence of Brexit and its impact on the value of the pound. This blog has many times pointed out that the fall in the value of sterling is a good thing and there can be no economic recovery without it. However it is critical to point out that it must be accompanied by a major economic stimulus, without which we will not get much, if any, benefit. Instead we will be left with  the downside of  increasing cost of imports and their effect on the cost of living and inflation. Incomes will be squeezed and growth, which is at best meagre, will slow. This really forces Hammond’s hand and demands of him something very bold on November 24th.

That question is impossible to answer. By any conventional political measure, whether it is opinion polls, or experience of what can work and what cannot, the Trump campaign is over.

The Republican party has deserted him, women are now coming forward with groping tales, unwanted kisses and similar smut, the tax row continues to grumble deep down like a volcano soon to erupt and in any other country, certainly in Europe, Trump would have had to withdraw. Indeed in the Australian parliament, Australia is a faithful ally of the US, a motion branding him a ‘filthy slug’ was passed unanimously. This is all unknown territory in international politics, let alone the domestic set up in the US. Only is Moscow does his star continue to rise.

There are now three possibilities open to a world dazzled by what has become a spectacle rather than an election. Trump will win narrowly, Trump will lose big, or Trump, fearing humiliation emblazoned across the planet, will withdraw. I have absolutely no idea which is more likely, neither do I rule out something even more off the page.