It will offend left wing readers of this blog who have not read Turn Left For Power, in which the whole issue of deterrence is comprehensively argued and examined, to learn that were I an MP today I would vote to renew. To hold a principled view that nuclear weapons are wicked and unacceptable is a posture to be admired and one which elevates the holder to the moral high ground. Such people would willingly give their lives for their beliefs. But to advance such a policy as a potential defence in a world structured as it is and not as we would wish it, is to hazard the lives of others and that is morally indefensible. I will explain.
The only time a nuclear power may be tempted to use nuclear weapons to gain advantage is upon an enemy which does not have them; to do so on a nuclear armed state will bring ruin upon the aggressor. Strategically a nuclear disarmed Britain is the most at risk target in the world. The reason is this. The decision to build our own nuclear deterrent was taken officially so that Britain could potentially act independently of the United States. The hidden reason was that Britain was fatally exposed to a Soviet nuclear strike to eliminate America’s forward base and its most powerful ally. The calculation was that the US might rather do a deal than risk its own annihilation in a nuclear response. America is risk averse to wars on its own territory, except of its own making in the 1860s.
In a nutshell the hidden reason for our own deterrent was to protect us from an American miscalculation, rather than from a direct aggressor. In today’s world we are faced with measured and careful, if more assertive, regimes in Washington, Moscow and Beijing. Pakistan is not stable but India is. Israel is not a threat to us. France is our ally. None of these countries poses a literal nuclear threat to the UK at this moment, but all are nuclear armed. There is also North Korea. But change the regime in any one of these countries (even an angry Trump?) and a real and sudden danger could well develop, not because Britain threatens, but because there is no doubt that America, by the power of its very existence and its military, does. And the cheap way for a fruitcake leader to send a punch to Washington is to take out Manchester, or Sheffield or Leeds. But not if the aggressor knows for absolute sure that he (or she) will not see the end of that very stupid day.
There are a multitude of issues of detail, especially connected to viability and flexibility which could affect the deterrent platform, the delivery vehicle and the payload. There is also the question of cyber warfare and the nature of deterrence fifty years from now. But today is about politics, the politics of a split and embarrassed opposition in the face of a miraculously reinvigorated government. After unprecedented political turmoil and confusion following Brexit, a show of national unity is timely. Whatever your politics. Work 24/7 for a nuclear free world by all means; there is no higher political endeavour.
But do not try to do it naked.