Calling US elections this far out is a mug’s game and this blog will not go that far. Nevertheless after sweeping victories in Super Tuesday contests both Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton are in commanding positions going forward. Mrs Clinton the more so because her field has narrowed to Bernie Sanders as the only contender whereas Trump is still winning in the high 30s and low 40s because there are still too many anti-Trump runners on the Republican side. If this is reduced to either Cruz or Rubio then it would be easier to judge Trump’s real strength in depth, but the smart money is on Trump to win. It is unlikely that Cruz or Rubio could beat Clinton in November, but Trump just might.
So while it is not yet necessary to burn midnight oil speculating on a Trump White House, some preparatory thoughts may be timely. The first thing to say is that those who know him and have done business with him see a very different trump to the barnstorming, headline grabbing sensationalist apparently sucking the life out of the Republican establishment. Walls, bombings, tax cuts on a heroic scale, increases in defense spending, carry a gun if you want to, are all good for getting out angry votes but they may fall short of an agenda for unifying government. For example you cannot cut taxes big time, get rid of the $18 trillion debt mountain and increase spending on armaments all at the same time, although Republicans have always believed you can. Which is why records show that Republican administrations under Reagan and the two Bushes ran much bigger deficits those of Clinton and Obama.
The word from the inside track is that if elected Trump will surprise. This blog believes he will for two reasons. The first is he is not a lawyer, he is a fixer and deal maker. Lawyers like Obama and the Clintons tend to see things through analysis, interpretation and possibilities. They also approach problems with an adversarial mindset and a box file full of red lines. Confrontation is their vocation and why people hire them. Trump is not interested in protocol or method. He is driven by outcome. He will meet, cut the bullshit then cut a deal. That’s why Putin wants Trump to win. The last time the world laughed when America elected a funny was when they chose a B movie actor from Hollywood. That turned out to be an historic turning point. Not at all what the rest of the world expected.
The big game changer with Trump is that he will have got to the White House on his own money. He will be beholden to nobody. At least that will be different.