Archive for February, 2016

Boris Backs Out: A Labour Gain?

Monday, February 22nd, 2016

Boris is the best known politician in Britain and by far its most popular. He invokes certain aspects of Churchill, about whom he wrote an acclaimed book. Churchill remained a powerful political figure when not in government and was generally known by his first name in an age of great formality; men called each other by their surnames without the Mr, but with Churchill it was always Winston. He was also something of a showman.

The peculiar fact about this type of personality is that it rises to the top, whatever stands in its way and however big its mistakes. Churchill became prime minister after the debacle in Norway led to Chamberlain’s downfall. But Norway was Churchill’s project and responsibility. Many are suspicious of Boris’s motives and wonder at his uncharacteristic dithering. Is this real or a show?  The answer is almost certainly a little bit of soul searching but a great deal of showmanship. And a lot of shrewd calculation.

If we vote to go he will have led the charge and Cameron too will have to go, whatever he says. Boris will be the darling of the elderly Brexit majority of the Tory party in the country who will elect Cameron’s successor. Boris will be a shoe in and will be prime minister by the autumn. If we vote to stay Boris will be even more than the darling of the Tory membership, he will be the hero who put his career on the line to champion a just but lost cause. When Cameron goes in about eighteen months as he says he plans to, Boris will replace him and will be the iconic Tory prime minister who leads the party into the general election in 2020. A weird combination of celebrity, clown and statesman.

Of course things could take a nasty turn. We could vote Leave causing Scotland to Leave the UK. Uncertainty and alarm could cause borrowing costs to rise sharply. The debt burden could become crushing. Negotiations for new trade deals could go awry. Unemployment could soar. There is no doubt that Boris supporting Leave makes a vote for Brexit more likely. That is why the pound has dropped on the news. Cameron will go down as the prime minister who led Britain out of Europe and drove Scotland out of the UK. But Boris will be the one who made both happen. As in 1945, 2020 could be Labour’s hour, but Boris’s doing. An echo of history.

EU Choice: Sovereignty

Sunday, February 21st, 2016

As the debate about in or out gets into its stride, we shall hear a lot about sovereignty from the Leave campaign. There are some points to be made here. The whole idea of a Union is that when its laws are agreed by all its members, all of them must abide by them and Union law has to have primacy over national law of member countries, otherwise there would be chaos. It would not be a Union. It would be a Confederation. It was on this issue that America had its Civil War. So it is an issue which can engage the very hearts of all who believe one way or the other.

Cameron is hinting that he is proposing to introduce in parliament a new law which will declare that in the final analysis the UK parliament is Sovereign over EU law. Several eminent lawyers have appeared on the media to explain that this is impossible without breaching the various EU treaties we have signed. So even if passed it would have no effect. Other countries in the EU do not have this difficulty because all of them have written constitutions. It is accepted that a country should not be obliged to do something in violation of its own constitution, unless its voters have approved an amendment to their arrangements in a referendum to permit it. This is how the EU Constitution bit the dust. Some countries, led by France voted No.

The problem for Britain is that it has no constitution in the sense of a codified document. Parliament is the constitution in a state of permanent evolution.This poses a problem for modern democracy upon which the European Union is founded. In Britain the constitution is owned and controlled by the government. In a true democracy it is owned and controlled by the people and lays down the rules under which they must be governed. Being in the EU offers the British people a layer of protection against bad and exploitative government which otherwise they do not have. If they vote to leave they need to get themselves a codified written constitution, approved by the people ASAP.

Trump Sails On

Sunday, February 21st, 2016

Trump was way out ahead in South Carolina notwithstanding a critical Pope. Cruz should have done better in this State. Bush has dropped out. So the only thing we now know for sure is that in November it cannot be a dynasty revival of Bush v Clinton.

Hilary won in Nevada by less than she ought, so Bernie is still very much in the race. One feels that Hilary is the more likely to end up with the nomination, but as with the Republicans, there are signs but no certainties. The next big moment will be Super Tuesday. Before then we can expect a piece of Trump theatre. The kind at which he excels. Stuff that would sink any other candidate, but for Trump such disasters add to his popularity and momentum.

Waiting For Boris

Saturday, February 20th, 2016

Before adding more comment on the now for sure referendum over our place in the EU (or not) this blog is planning to let the dust settle for a few hours and see what the shape of things to come actually is following manic negotiations, political ructions, a media frenzy and wall to wall news. It is in the end about whether we wish to be part of Europe or not and that is a question which has not vexed the public over much, but has traumatised the Tory party for over thirty years. All Europe knows  that it is because of the Tory split we all have to go through this. Corbyn was right when he said the Tory schism has now grown to continental proportions. Labour too is split but not in such a frenetic fashion. It has learned its lesson at the last referendum.

The Tory party members are in the majority over sixty out in the countryside and of a certain stripe. Young people shun the party and relatively few join, the figure is in single figures. A far cry from the pre-Thatcher era when the Young Conservatives were the largest political youth organisation in the free world. Most of these older members want to leave, because they look back on a past, rather than contemplate a future. But nobody can tell what is going to happen over the next four months and the only certain thing is that referenda often take an unexpected turn, especially if something or someone sets them alight.

Which brings us back to Boris. Many important hearts flutter in Westminster tonight as they await his decision.

Downfall In Downing Street

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

Set in the mid nineteen nineties, this fast moving thriller lifts the curtain on sex, sleaze and corruption in high places as the long reign of the government totters to an end, following the ousting of the iconic Margaret Thatcher. The novel catches the mood of those times with a host of fictional characters who engage in political intrigue, sex, money laundering and murder, pursued by an Irish investigative journalist and his girlfriend, the daughter of a cabinet minister found dead in a hotel room after bondage sex.

KINDLE OR PAPERBACK     UK    US

Fallon And The Falklands

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

This blog has always been riled by the idiotic pronouncements of the UK Defence Secretary Michael Fallon. His latest two border on the irrational. The newest is his assertion that Jeremy Corbyn is a bigger threat to the Falklands than Argentina, because the Labour leader suggested that Britain should try and reach a reasonable accommodation with her. So we should. This never ending stand off does nobody any good, least of all the islanders. I remember supporting the use of force to take the islands back after the ill judged invasion by the doomed military junta, but on the condition that having proved to them that such disagreements could not be solved by brute force, we sit down and talk and reach a settlement. We never did. If Corbyn does get the opportunity it will be well worth the try.

A couple of days ago we had the accusation that Russia was deliberately bombing civilians in Syria. Such is the nature of the combat, the variety of enemies and their entanglement among civilians that mishaps are inevitable and both the Americans and the British have had problems in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past. But to go on and accuse Putin of war crimes is way over the top and entirely counter productive in the current struggle to pause the fighting and bring respite to the suffering. As for bombing civilians, perhaps Mr Fallon could spare a moment to explain Bomber Command’s Area Bombing campaign in WWII, in particular the Hamburg fire storm in which the RAF killed over 40,000 civilians, mostly women and children, in a single night. That was not by mistake. It was on purpose, as a matter of policy and approved at the highest level.

Printing Money: New Ideas

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

QE in various forms is now very much part of the economic conversation, especially in connection with recent market turmoil. Dynamic Quantitative Easing (also called Peoples Quantitative Easing) remains under government, not bank, control and targets specific investment projects without borrowing, interest or repayments. It can reboot the economy, boost manufacturing and exports and enable sustained growth of real national wealth shared by all, rather than just asset inflation which is the downside of ordinary QE. If you want to find out more you can enjoy a lucid explanation of the original idea from the link below.

Download .99p  Paperback £2.99   Dynamic Quantitative Easing: An Idea For Growth

Is Cameron In Trouble?

Wednesday, February 17th, 2016

Surely it was not supposed to be like this? Negotiations to the wire which even if they succeed, will deliver a deal that is either smoke and mirrors or much less than expected. As for immigration, the clincher according to many commentators? Every expert asked has confirmed the inflow of migrants in unlikely to reduce much if at all, even if Cameron’s benefit curbs are agreed in full, which is impossible.

This blog has worried that the referendum is going to be about terms rather than principle. It would have been better to hold and in out referendum which would have been won by Remain and then use the enhanced clout of the UK to fix a few deals to improve the EU for everybody. Now we are heading into an argument about fine print, with several cabinet heavyweights planning to drive the Leave campaign. The idea of divided government has only been tried once; by Harold Wilson at the last EU referendum. Labour was seriously damaged and went into a decline which lasted over twenty years. If it is a Remain victory will Cameron be able to put his government back together again or will it be a Humpty Dumpty moment? If it is Leave who win, then what?

Then there is  that elephant in the Tory room.

Boris.

Browse My Books

Monday, February 15th, 2016

BROWSE MY BOOKS WITH THESE LINKSAn image posted by the author.

Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S        

Malcolm Blair-Robinson UK

Are The Banks Safe?

Monday, February 15th, 2016

The worldwide decline in the value of banking shares and the constant whispers about their stability is unsettling. especially with banks. In that sector there is no smoke without fire. Just now it is not clear whether we see smoke or steam.

Banks are safer than they were pre-crash, but that judgement must be tempered by the nature and size of the crash. Last time it was dodgy property funding in the US that set the overheated system ablaze. This time there is an oil price crash, a slowing of Chinese demand which is having a dangerous knock-on effect in the East. But there is a new danger. The Chinese economy is internally over borrowed, especially in property speculation. There appear to be new cities even, with few people in them. All this has been funded by borrowing.

The Yuan is under speculative attack, which the Chinese government has tried to stem by eye popping use of its vast cash reserves, now down by 25%. If you worry about banks, you must hope it works. For the sub-prime China style is that all the properties and businesses in debt are valued in Yuan, but much of the borrowing is in dollars. If Chinese firms go under, Chinese banks will be in trouble. And in the global economy all banks are linked. Even if China saves its own, the damage to confidence is done. One thing can lead to another.