Boris is the best known politician in Britain and by far its most popular. He invokes certain aspects of Churchill, about whom he wrote an acclaimed book. Churchill remained a powerful political figure when not in government and was generally known by his first name in an age of great formality; men called each other by their surnames without the Mr, but with Churchill it was always Winston. He was also something of a showman.
The peculiar fact about this type of personality is that it rises to the top, whatever stands in its way and however big its mistakes. Churchill became prime minister after the debacle in Norway led to Chamberlain’s downfall. But Norway was Churchill’s project and responsibility. Many are suspicious of Boris’s motives and wonder at his uncharacteristic dithering. Is this real or a show? The answer is almost certainly a little bit of soul searching but a great deal of showmanship. And a lot of shrewd calculation.
If we vote to go he will have led the charge and Cameron too will have to go, whatever he says. Boris will be the darling of the elderly Brexit majority of the Tory party in the country who will elect Cameron’s successor. Boris will be a shoe in and will be prime minister by the autumn. If we vote to stay Boris will be even more than the darling of the Tory membership, he will be the hero who put his career on the line to champion a just but lost cause. When Cameron goes in about eighteen months as he says he plans to, Boris will replace him and will be the iconic Tory prime minister who leads the party into the general election in 2020. A weird combination of celebrity, clown and statesman.
Of course things could take a nasty turn. We could vote Leave causing Scotland to Leave the UK. Uncertainty and alarm could cause borrowing costs to rise sharply. The debt burden could become crushing. Negotiations for new trade deals could go awry. Unemployment could soar. There is no doubt that Boris supporting Leave makes a vote for Brexit more likely. That is why the pound has dropped on the news. Cameron will go down as the prime minister who led Britain out of Europe and drove Scotland out of the UK. But Boris will be the one who made both happen. As in 1945, 2020 could be Labour’s hour, but Boris’s doing. An echo of history.