Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

QE in various forms is now very much part of the economic conversation, especially in connection with a fresh approach to financial issues by the new leadership of the Labour party. Dynamic Quantitative Easing remains under government, not bank, control and targets specific investment projects without borrowing, interest or repayments. It can reboot the economy, boost manufacturing and exports and enable sustained growth of real national wealth shared by all, rather than just asset inflation which is the downside of ordinary QE. If you want to find out more you can enjoy a lucid explanation of the original idea from the link below.

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In his first face to face TV interview, a scoop for Robert Peston in his new role as political editor for ITN, the former Tory leader and foreign secretary warned that were Britain to vote to leave, this would seriously destabilize the EU to nobody’s advantage, least of all our own, and if that were not enough, lead to the potential break up of the UK as the Scots who want to remain in the EU, up stumps and declare time on the Union.

That has been this blog’s view for many months and it is reassuring that one of the Tory big guns, some still feel the biggest, reports that though in many aspects a Eurosceptic before, he has come to the view that in the world of today, with all its pressures and problems, in is better than out. Quite right.

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Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S        

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At times of stress the public at large, whether they vote or not, look to politicians for leadership. Especially from the government. The opposition is often split because the party out of power can indulge itself, the more so now that the possibility of being caught by a snap election is made remote, with the move to five year parliaments. Governments are not supposed to split, but if they do, prime ministers are in turn expected  to rid the cabinet of rebels.

But now things are different. The Tory party has been split over Europe since the prime of Thatcher. It crashed out under Major the split was so bad, and it has never healed. Cameron thought up the idea of an official referendum (of which the renegotiations are window dressing) in the belief it would unite the party for the general election. The ruse worked but in a peculiar fashion. It was a unity which was glued by the knowledge that it could split again later. Later is now.

Most commentators and historians agree that the vote to remain or leave is of historic importance. It is therefore unfortunate that the only way which the Tory party, which is in majority government, can hold together is to campaign for both yes and no. That is like a civil war in which one army under one commander fights on both sides. When the fight is over the wounds will run deep. Meanwhile the voting public looking for leadership, will find none and will have to choose between the prejudice of one side over the hopes of another. The opposition shows more unity on the issue of Europe, which it supports, than on most other issues, but even here there are some who want to leave.

Unfortunately that is not all. Corbyn struggles to lead a parliamentary party which did not want him, yet he is backed by the largest membership of any political party in the UK, who do. Over the holiday period and just after, Labour made the news with a blizzard of resignations of shadow ministers of whom nobody outside Westminster had ever heard, none of whom a few days later, after the light of publicity is switched off, can be recalled to mind.

So when the referendum is over, assuming that the country does not lose its mind and vote to leave, action to restore order will be called for. Far from welcoming back those ministers who campaigned for no, the prime minister should fire them all. At the same time Corbyn should not only fire New Labour die-hards from his shadow cabinet, but he should also withdraw the whip from them. Whatever may be the froth and fury of the hour, both leaders will have a firm base from which to build, Farage will have some useful scraps to harvest and Osborne will have some potential recruits from the old Thatcherite wing of the busted flush still calling itself New Labour.

Of course if the country votes to leave it is chaos for everybody.