Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

A recent survey discovered that of those who thought of voting Labour in 2015 and then did not, the majority turned away because they found the party too centrist and not left enough. This echoes the conclusion of this blog posted months ago.

The same survey found that people voted Tory because they thought Labour useless on the economy. There is a subtle point here often missed. Those who vote regularly out of habit and custom always vote at elections and generally stay close to the centre. However those who vote out of the conviction they want to change things, vote for the left. but they do not vote at all if they are not convinced there is real prospect of change. Thus the SNP victory in Scotland was gained on a much higher turnout that the Tory victory in England.

For Labour to win it must attract not from the centre, but from the non-voting left. In other words if it had attracted back the 5 million votes it lost since the invention of New Labour, it would have had about 14 million in total. The Tories won on a low turnout with just 11 million. The mountain is not impossible to climb if you know which one to go for. 15 million registered voters stayed at home in May 2015.

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First we had the Euro crisis. Then came the Migrant problem. Now we have the Refugee crisis. The common feature of all of them is that the EU cannot come up with a workable solution. With the Euro they opted for kicking the can down the road. With the refugees, because of the unprecedented numbers, one by one countries with good intentions are being forced to shut their borders. Every commentator at the various crossings describes dreadful scenes of panic and dismay and uses the same word to describe events. Shambles.

There are two underlying causes. The first is the calamity of a foreign policy, mainly driven by the US and the UK, with which the EU mostly went along. The second is the fact, so often emphasised by this Blog, that you cannot have a currency without a government. Well it turns out you cannot have a Union either. Whatever the outcome of the UK’s negotiations over its relationship with Europe, the EU must address the fact that its complex and multi-headed structure of governance is fine for a sunny day, but if the weather changes to darker skies, it is not fit for purpose.

Meanwhile the multitudes continue to flood towards what they suppose is peace, freedom and opportunity. Can the EU deliver on its promise?

The current ideas of the new shadow chancellor to pump money into the base of the economy are welcome, although not quite right.  If you want to find out how it should work you can download a lucid explanation of the original idea from the links below.

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Two former foreign secretaries were yesterday exonerated by the authority which supposedly upholds parliamentary standards, over allegations that they misbehaved offering to sell lobbying services to bogus companies for thousands of pounds per day in a joint sting organised by Channel 4 and the  Daily Telegraph. They were told they had done nothing which broke parliamentary rules. Really? Well if that is the case most people will feel that with rules which permit this kind of caper, parliament itself is broken.

To add insult to the injury of  astonished voters, the regulator blamed the broadcaster and the newspaper. It is like a repeat of Hutton. No wonder Corbyn got a landslide.