We are now watching a situation entirely without precedent. A new voting process designed by a political party to extend its reach and appeal has done just that. It has expanded its membership way ahead of all the other political parties at Westminster put together with over 500,000 members and supporters. Of those over 250,000 voted for their new leader Jeremy Corbyn, giving him a landslide victory of 60% of the votes cast in the first ballot. He has a mandate from his party greater than any other leader and received more votes than the other three candidates put together by a country mile. So what is the problem?
The problem is the death throes of New Labour. Because although it has little support among the membership and failed dismally in the general election, with a wipe out in Scotland, most of Labour’s MPs adhere to its centre left brand of Thatcherism. Indeed out of the 232 MPs Corbyn now leads, fewer than 20 (possibly no more than a dozen) voted for him. A substantial number of them have policy and ideological positions much closer to Cameron than to Corbyn. Nobody knows if this can work or if it can, how?
These thoughts may help. First New Labour is done. It is too close to the modern left of centre Tory party over economics, austerity, foreign policy and ideology. If you want that you might as well vote for the real thing. This is why it cannot win a general election again and why it is dangerous for the Union, because it will never win back the seats it has lost in Scotland. And the Scots will break away from an austerity driven Tory England if they get a second chance. Looking at it dispassionately it might be simplest if the group of MPs who cannot support what Corbyn stands for join Cameron. They would then represent the left of the Tory party which politically is where they are. In 2020 they would face Labour candidates selected to represent the return of Labour to its roots. These pink Tories might win or they might be wiped out.
Looking back into history we can find the 1935 election results interesting. The Labour party fell apart in 1930 after its leader, Ramsay MacDonald, remained Prime Minister of a National Government comprised mainly of Conservatives. By the 1935 general election, Clement Attlee, leader of the Labour MPs who refused to join the enterprise, managed to get 52 seats. The Liberals totalled 35 and the Tories romped home with 473. Attlee had to rebuild his party in parliament almost from scratch. At the next general election in 1945 (Britain suspended its democracy for the duration of the war) his patience paid off. Attlee won 393 seats giving him a majority of 146, enabling him to inaugurate the biggest political and social changes in modern times. His legacy lasted till Thatcher. So if his MPs cause too much trouble, Corbyn may have to set about rebuilding the party. He would have the overwhelming backing of the membership and the Trade Unions. That last point is important. They have the money.
Interestingly Churchill did not have the backing of the Conservative party when he became Prime Minister in 1940 and did not become its leader until after Chamberlain’s death. When he stood up to give his first Commons speech as PM, he was cheered by Labour but his own party remained largely silent behind him. That thought should cheer Corbyn on.