Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

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    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S        

    Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.K.

This blog is among those who feel that Ed Milliband should have remained leader during the navel gazing period of introspection which follows political defeats. Once the analysis was complete and the party had an idea where it is headed, it is easier to find the right leader. As it is the line up of candidates, with the possible exception of Jeremy Corbyn, is one many will find a vintage ensemble of the instantly forgettable. Moreover in lamenting its defeat few in the Labour party understand why it happened. We will now explore this. Some things are clear, though not to Labour.

Defeat came not from a failure to proclaim aspiration, admire entrepreneurs or have a love in with business. It came because Labour has ceased to promote the interests of the mass of the working people; by this I mean all those whose income is derived from working for others and whose salaries and wages have a glass ceiling, otherwise costs are out of control, but without whose contribution there is a collapse of civilised and commercial society. All these people depend on someone to speak for them and promote their interests, so that they get a fair cut of the cake. This is their bargain with their country. They will keep it running so that the ambitious can aspire, entrepreneurs can risk their all, and big business can compete in a global market.

The source of the defeat was not the Conservatives, who gained barely any new votes and for whom less than a quarter of those eligible voted. It came from the SNP in Scotland in a spectacular electoral massacre and from Plaid Cymru in Wales by syphoning off working class votes from Labour. But in England the blow came from UKIP. Because whereas blue UKIP supporters went back to the Tories in fear of a Labour victory when Cameron promised both a referendum and all sorts of tough action over immigration, red UKIP supporters stayed with Farage. This was in part because Labour was vague about its intentions over both issues, but more because there was a feeling that Labour had turned its back on the working class. This has been an increasing strand made clear by a look at historic figures. The following are the Labour totals for the last six elections.

1992 Kinnock        11.5 m

1997 Blair               13.5m

2001 Blair              10.7 m

2005 Blair                9.5m

2010 Brown             8.6m

2015 Milliband         9.3m

It is easy to see that from the point of Blair’s first landslide Labour’s total votes fell at each subsequent election, although he won two more before Brown’s defeat. It can also be seen that the second highest Labour vote after Blair’s 1997 landslide is Kinnock’s 1992 defeat. 2015 is the first time the Labour vote has gone up in five elections, and that is in spite of disaster in Scotland and losses in Wales. To me this says that as soon as the working class saw the true colours of New Labour in government, large numbers stopped voting.

This is borne out by the turnout. It had traditionally been in the mid to high 70s. In the first Blair re-election it fell off a cliff to 59% and since then it has struggled back to 65%. So the figures suggest the hesitant shift to the left by Ed Milliband was a small step in the right direction. What Labour needs to do to win is not to chase after people who will only vote for them in exasperation if the Tories have made a complete horlicks of their own mission, but to reconnect to the millions who have turned away from politics and democracy because it does nothing for them. That means moving left.

Between 1945 and 1979 the centre moved steadily to the left. Between 1983 and 2015 it has been drifting to the right. But with the gap between rich and poor growing ever wider and productivity at record lows, with numbing financial pressures building up in public services, including health, education and defence, there is a sea change in the air. The centre is ready to move again to the left. Labour now has the opportunity to find a leader who will start the process in England which the SNP have pioneered in Scotland.

The challenge facing Labour is significant. The next election will be fought against a Tory party most likely lead by the charismatic Russian speaking Boris with his populist style, against a backdrop of cash strapped public services and an even bigger gap between rich and poor. Even if the budget is balanced and that is a very big if, the annual cost of the debt mountain will be almost the biggest drain on the national income and the trade deficit will continue to be huge. The economy will still be driven by house price inflation and consumption and it will not have been rebalanced in favour of manufacturing and exports. Productivity will still be low and the skills shortage will be growing. Infrastructure renewal will be close to crisis.

To meet that challenge Labour will have to offer a good deal more than a few macro policies to appeal on the doorstep. It will have to present a new vision of a different society in which the power of the establishment shrinks as the power of the people grows, through economic reform, modernization of democratic institutions and how and where they work, rebuilding the country’s industrial base, its infrastructure and its affordable housing stock to rent (two million of those), its health and social care and the harmony of its multi-cultural society. It will have to have a robust policy about energy generation and distribution and a much less fragmented approach to education. The list of injustices to iron out will be long and growing longer.

So the next Labour leader must have a big vision and be a big hitter. Whoever it is must recognise the era of New Labour has failed the nation and is over. And one more thing. There must be planning for a worst case scenario that by the next general election in 2020 Britain will have left the EU and as a consequence Scotland will have left the UK. We hope not but it may happen.