It is clear that the EU sanctions are doing a good deal of damage to the EU economy and especially to the eastern members who have greater trading links with Russia. It is also clear that the penny is beginning to drop that Russia itself feels far more threatened by NATO and EU expansion than the reverse, although for domestic political reasons the Baltic states and Poland tend to play up the aggressive intentions of the Russian bear.
Meanwhile the suffering in Eastern Ukraine goes on with no real end in sight to pockets of quite fierce fighting, even if some level of truce does exist. To suppose that all would return to normal if Russia walked away is to admit denial of the facts. As with all civil wars the vengeance and bitterness has acquired a momentum of its own. The only way to resolve this is first for Russia and the West to reach a better understanding of each other’s security concerns and to address them. This must include a halt to the eastward expansion of NATO, unless Russia is brought into it as a full member, by far the best outcome. Once that is resolved in principle if not in detail, a new spirit of cooperation should enable a solution to the issue of how a reconstituted Ukraine should be organised, with a system of governance which can work, to include where the borders are. Such a settlement will then have to be jointly enforced by Russia and NATO since none of the warring parties will give up unless they are made to.