Although the atrocities of Islamic State are never far from the news, the general level of media noise from both the Middle East and Ukraine is a good deal less than in the recent past. This is curious at one level because the situation in Eastern Ukraine remains dangerous and the Middle East has rarely been engulfed in such chaos of war and lawlessness. There is of course a general election campaign in force here and that always distorts the news. Indeed if you listen to the latest Tory onslaught, the greatest threat to the UK comes from Scotland.
There is however something much more important going on, which is historically significant and may be seen one day as a watershed moment. Britain and the US have stopped meddling where they do more harm than good, however well intentioned their activities. This may be a conscious decision because of past failures now so huge that they are beyond denial, or by default because of rising domestic pressures.
The result is that in the Mid East the various Arab powers are now beginning to act upon the threats that in many ways they have themselves fomented and now have to control; Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are all active and it will be these three who will in the end resolve the schisms and faultlines in the various interpretations of Islam which, like Christianity in the past, are the source of conflict and forms of genocide. The surviving Assad regime has confirmed its protection of Christians where it is in a position to enforce it. America, Britain and some other European countries are continuing with air strikes on IS targets, but it is all relatively low key. Whilst the continuing suffering is a bad thing the fact that the region itself is now in the driving seat to solve its problems is a very good thing and that is the way it should be.
In Ukraine it is Germany, supported by France, but with the Russian speaking Merkel very much in the lead, where the initiatives to resolve the Ukraine crisis are being organised. Progress is being made. It looks as if the East will get most of the autonomy it wants and certainly Russia will never give up Crimea, not least because the vast majority of crimeans would not let them. Kiev will eventually see a settlement that leaves it with authority over a good less territory than when it started the crisis, but it will still be able to build a prosperous state on what remains. It should reflect on its reckless policies which have led it to where it is and debarred it from where it wanted to go.
Whether Russia will be brought back towards Europe or whether Russians have decided that they want to rebuild a less dependent state is not yet clear. A lot will depend on the chemistry between Putin and Merkel. What is clear is that Russia will be more assertive, but that does not have to mean she will not be constructive. Some things will depend on who is the next US President.
As for the UK now cowering under the dark cloud of a Scottish takeover (what piffle) a home truth needs to be confronted. By threatening to leave Europe and by fomenting false disharmony between Scotland and England, the UK has begun to look rather a shaky enterprise. No wonder we are already more or less excluded from all the discussions and ignored when we are included. Everyone will deny it, but that is how it is.