Archive for April 8th, 2015

Election: Warming Up?

Wednesday, April 8th, 2015

There are hints that clear water is opening up between the major parties. There is now a strategic choice between Labour and the Tories over Europe and Labour are now shifting towards their core vote of working families and those at the base of the economy. This represents a decisive move from New Labour, which was actually a Thatcherite party with a less strident ideology.

Having lacked a Labour narrative, there is now at least a theme developing. A cut in tuition fees, more humane cuts of government spending (but we do not yet know what) a boost to growth by borrowing for infrastructure development, ending the non-dom tax tax status  and tax rises for the rich all could be outriders for a goody bag of populist measures which seek to bring the benefits of economic recovery to the majority rather than just the top few.

There is a danger in this for the Tories. So far they have made the weather by concentrating on the economic recovery and various demand side incentives to ensure a house price boom, which is the economic model they know and like best. Their problem is in their cuts programme which is beginning to worry a lot of people who know that the last five years have left little more to cut without a major diminution in the quality and scope of public services. Serious strains are now evident in the NHS which cannot be glossed over with smooth talk.

Then there is Europe. The well meaning offer of a referendum on Europe after two years of horse trading and rows between Britain and the EU was fine if the effect on the economy meanwhile was neutral. But now the pro-Europeans, emboldened by Blair, are starting to say that the whole process will in itself be damaging and cost jobs, because of the uncertainty it will cause and if the vote went to quit, we would face the biggest economic disaster since the end of WWII. Having lived through that period I can tell you that it is something to be really scared of. And voters do not vote for scary things.