Archive for January, 2015

Euro Billions

Friday, January 23rd, 2015

There has been very little commentary on this rather historic decision by the ECB to pump a trillion plus of new money into the Eurozone. It will make a difference but it may well inflate assets and make the rich richer, without finding its way into the base of the euro economy where it is needed. America has not had the same degree of asset inflation as the UK, although both used QE. The reason is America’s economy is more broadly based and not as dependent on its financial and property sectors as the UK. The Eurozone is also less financially focussed but against that it is an amalgam of national economies with wide variations of almost everything, so predictions are impossible until we see the effects of the first tranches of new cash. It will depend on where the money flows and were it winds up.

Sooner or later the Eurozone will have to pool its financial sovereignty and establish not just a central bank but also a treasury. For that it will need some sort of executive to take charge. It has no democratic institutions established to put this into effect. The other thing it has to do is to end its spat with Russia. Europe can no longer prosper with Russia excluded and striking a deal with Putin would do more for the long term health of the euro economy than any amount of QE.

Good Historical Drama

Thursday, January 22nd, 2015

From MALCOLM  BLAIR-ROBINSON

These two mega thrillers are a must for those who love historical drama and political intrigue. Kindle or Paperback from Amazon worldwide.

Hitler's First Lady: Compact EditionPurple Killing

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Greece To Decide

Thursday, January 22nd, 2015

On Sunday Greeks will go to the polls to elect a new government. Generally Greece is thought to be the basket case of the Eurozone with borrowing out of control, whilst reluctant to reorganise its economy to be more productive so that it can pay down its debts and improve its living standards. Such is the level of austerity imposed by its Eurozone paymasters, principally Germany were austerity is good, the likelihood is the election of a left leaning government which, if it does not get what it wants, will default. What it wants is an even bigger write down than it has received already.

First we have to see what happens in the election and then we shall have to see, if the left wins, who blinks first in the poker game which the negotiations will become. Greece leaving the Euro is back on the agenda. In fact Greece’s problem is not debt, it is part GDP and part a complete failure of its tax collection  system to the point where it cannot finance anything without borrowing because people do not pay their taxes as a matter of cultural habit.

If you look at the league table of total external debt, Greece is way better than the UK. Greece has a ratio of 1.7x GDP, whereas the UK is nearer 4.5x GDP. Those figures count all borrowing including households and businesses. If you include only government borrowing, Greece is much worse. If it could lift its revenue stream and its GDP, Greece would be on the road to recovery. If it crashes out of the Euro it will have to do that. Borrowing will no longer be an option.

Obama Is Right

Wednesday, January 21st, 2015

I will just remind new readers, as regulars already know, that I have sympathies and leanings to aspects of both the republicans and democrats, so my allegiance varies by issue. I thought President Obama gave a bravura performance in his State of the Union address. He appeared more confident than of late and clearly senses that the wind may be ebbing away from the sails of his opponents. When the cameras panned into the audience as his supporters leapt to their feet for the ritual ovations, one had the impression of large numbers of grumpy old men still seated.

On one issue Obama is right and it will become the number one political issue all across the West. Income inequality. The gap between rich and poor has grown to unprecedented levels, suggesting that there is something fundamentally adrift not with capitalism, but with the current model of it. Politicians of all persuasions will have to move this issue to the top of their in trays. It will grow and grow in importance until to be on the wrong side of it will guarantee electoral carnage. And not just in America.

Unemployment Drops: But What About Productivity?

Wednesday, January 21st, 2015

Too many of the new jobs created since 2010, over two million of them apparently, are self employed and while some of these will be successful and enterprising start ups, too many are hand to mouth efforts to try and work at whatever and for however little, just to keep going. Wage growth at 1.8% cannot for long sustain economic growth of 3%.

Moreover there is the ever pressing issue of debt expansion and asset inflation in an economy operating at close to nil inflation. Too much of the economic activity is in the financial sector relative to everywhere else in the real economy, and too much of that is in London and the South East. So there is no cause to celebrate anything other than survival and every reason to press forward to find a better and fairer economic model.

As for interest rates. This saga has become a farce. Every time it is proposed to use this tool, it is put back in the box and every time the reason is given, it is the wrong one. Had interest rates been eased up earlier, sufficient to provide savers with a return and sufficient to curb asset inflation, we would not be in quite the uncertain place we are now.

 

Historical Drama

Wednesday, January 21st, 2015

From MALCOLM  BLAIR-ROBINSON

These two mega thrillers are a must for those who love historical drama and political intrigue. Kindle or Paperback from Amazon worldwide.

Hitler's First Lady: Compact EditionPurple Killing

AMAZON.COM                     AMAZON.UK

Thrillers For 99p: Download Now

Wednesday, January 21st, 2015

GOOD READS FOR 2015

 From  TOR  RAVEN

Download all five fast reading thrillers now! Offered at 90p or 90c. Or buy paperbacks from £4.99. Orders over £10 postage free.

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Satan's Disciple: Gothic Crime SeriesPower Corruption and LiesThe Hastings OptionWhilloe's First Case Hess Enigma: A Novel

 

 

Chilcot : Unacceptable Delay

Wednesday, January 21st, 2015

It is right for the Prime Minister to write to Chilcot to complain about the inexcusable delays in publishing this inquiry. The public is utterly fed up with this bumbling establishment which cannot conclude, deliver or resolve anything. The difference now is that people will not put up with it any longer and nervous politicians are beginning to sense this. And rightly so.

This process of trying to discover how many lies were told to gain support for the disastrous Iraq war and by whom started before the last General Election and is not now to be published until after the next one. In any normal world this would be considered an abuse of process and a public insult. Such is the ramshackle and uncoded structure of governance which is called our unwritten constitution, these abuses are not only accepted but are standard practice.

Evidently the final delay is caused by giving those criticised in the report an opportunity to respond. That is absurd. Why should the guilty be given the chance to clean up their image?

Good Reads Just 90p : Download Now!

Tuesday, January 20th, 2015

GOOD READS FOR 2015

 From  TOR  RAVEN

Download all five fast reading thrillers now! Offered at 90p or 90c. Or buy paperbacks from £4.99. Orders over £10 postage free.

AMAZON.COM                        AMAZON.UK

 

Satan's Disciple: Gothic Crime SeriesPower Corruption and LiesThe Hastings OptionWhilloe's First Case Hess Enigma: A Novel

 

From MALCOLM  BLAIR-ROBINSON

These two mega thrillers are a must for those who love historical drama and political intrigue.

Hitler's First Lady: Compact EditionPurple Killing

AMAZON.COM                     AMAZON.UK

Browse My Books

Tuesday, January 20th, 2015

Malcolm Blair-Robinson  BROWSE MY BOOKS WITH THESE LINKS

Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.S          Malcolm Blair-Robinson U.K.